April 24th, 2017 Banned and Restricted update: GUSH AND PROBE/TOP in Legacy



  • @Mr_Rippe

    Moat seems like an elite card in the format. And it seems like it has been that way for a while now.



  • @cutlex said in April 24th, 2017 Banned and Restricted update: GUSH AND PROBE/TOP in Legacy:

    Chalice isn't around anymore to derp you out of your moxen. Lodestone Golem has retired from the days of bashing your face in before you can play some land. Want to beat shops? Add more mana to your deck and start cutting some of the dead maindeck cards. Oh, and this same thing will help your Eldrazi matchup, too.

    You can't be first in the blue mage arms race and expect to have a good matchup against decks built to punish your greed.

    Can we please stop spouting this nonsense that the way to beat shops is having more lands in your deck? Its just not true. Its been said on these boards in the past and its been shot down on these boards in the past. More lands in your deck doesn't do a thing to a deck that puts you back a mana a turn for the first 3 turns and wins on the 4th or 5th turn. Shops decks these days are simply too aggressive. And while they are aggressively beating your face in and setting you back a mana turn w/ a strip effect or sphere effect while going up 1-2 mana per turn you can still only play 1 land per turn. Shops simply ends the game too fast for 'more mana' to be the answer.

    The way to beat shops consistently is to a) win the die roll b) have an opening hand force of will and c) hope you use that force of will on the right threat. You can not outpace shops in mana development anymore and you cannot keep pace anymore either. They close the door way too fast.

    Replacing some of the dead cards in your maindeck is a valid argument to combat shops.



  • @Khahan I agree that Shops is more aggressive now and that running more lands isn't ideal. However, running Moxen does enable you to negate the tempo advantage and those were the things most Gush decks were cutting.



  • @Khahan having actually done playtesting about this. Running more lands in your deck can really help you beat shops. Specifically, as an Oath player, running more lands let me more effectively board in Energy Flux. That helped me win a much higher percentage of games than I had been before. (I think it was on the order of a 12% jump... I'm trying to go back and find the paper.)

    Why do you think that more lands has no effect? Have you tested this theory?



  • @Topical_Island said in April 24th, 2017 Banned and Restricted update: GUSH AND PROBE/TOP in Legacy:

    @Khahan having actually done playtesting about this. Running more lands in your deck can really help you beat shops. Specifically, as an Oath player, running more lands let me more effectively board in Energy Flux. That helped me win a much higher percentage of games than I had been before. (I think it was on the order of a 12% jump... I'm trying to go back and find the paper.)

    Why do you think that more lands has no effect? Have you tested this theory?

    Energy flux does very little against competent shops pilots, especially once ravager is out. You're talking a 3 mana enchantment with a triggered ability they can respond to. Remember, shops is just so much faster these days and ravager laughs at energy flux. By the time you get 3 mana on the board to cast it you need 4-5 mana. By the time you have that shops has you on your heels. When it triggers they tap artifact mana, sac it to ravager and use the floating mana to pay the rest. Or they just pay for ballista and 1 or 2 spheres, let the rest go the yard and finish you off.

    And @ChubbyRain - yes absolutely more artifact mana can help. But only if you win the die roll or they dont have 1 of 9 sphere effects out on turn 1.

    The tools are out there. Fragmentize, pithing needle, ancient grudge, hurkyls recall, rebuild, even swords to plowshares can all slow down/limit/stop shops. Some of the cards are even versatile against other match ups - fragmentize can help against oath, it can help against landstill if they play stony silence etc. Swords is pretty universal. Generic bounce like repeal can be used in multiple match ups. Pithing needle is such a staple against any BUT gush mentor its almost main deckable.

    We have answers at our disposal. Adding lands just isn't going to get the job done for mentor decks, though.



  • Running more lands helps in exactly one aspect against Shops, and that is in increasing your odds of having Ingot Chewer/etc. mana in your post board mulligans to 6 or 5.

    In all other situations the decks that played more lands but more expensive curves (@wappla would say they played worse Divinations) were NO better at actually doing stuff against Shops.

    Never forget that mana is chosen to support a CURVE. It's not just some willy nilly decision to jam more land and BOOM you win more. Otherwise we would have seen more 5-lands-in-sideboards.

    And, it's not actually clear that your typical big-curve blue shells even strategically or tactically advance from having better opening hand spot artifact removal. The tempo gained might literally not matter when your important spells cost 4 and don't attack and block effectively. It's very likely that this is a net WIN for Shops precisely because people are forced to play higher-mana, higher-curve, do-nothing strategies.



  • @ChubbyRain I wasn't disrespecting you or Ryan at all. I honestly appreciate the hard work you guys put into the meta breakdowns and analysis.
    My point was that some people are, not necessarily stupid but, not paying close enough attention to the data/information in front of them and misinterpret it no matter how simple it may be. Some people just pointed to Gush decks showing at the top of tournaments and used that to get Gush restricted without acknowledging the fact that Mentor is the problem and Probe to a degree, not Gush itself.
    Classifying decks inVintage is by no means an easy task. You and Ryan do a great job.
    My apologies for the misunderstanding.



  • @Ten-Ten I mean we're not sure what "feedback" WotC used in make their decision - I think that's the most frustrating part. They could have provided much more rationale on their decision. Instead, they wrote very little and I honestly felt what they wrote was misguided. I guess my challenge to your perspective is that while Mentor is a problem, I disagree that it is the problem. There are simply too many cards that work well with Gush for the card to not be format-warping.

    Edit: Thank you for the kind words.


  • TMD Supporter

    @Khahan said in April 24th, 2017 Banned and Restricted update: GUSH AND PROBE/TOP in Legacy:

    @Topical_Island said in April 24th, 2017 Banned and Restricted update: GUSH AND PROBE/TOP in Legacy:

    @Khahan having actually done playtesting about this. Running more lands in your deck can really help you beat shops. Specifically, as an Oath player, running more lands let me more effectively board in Energy Flux. That helped me win a much higher percentage of games than I had been before. (I think it was on the order of a 12% jump... I'm trying to go back and find the paper.)

    Why do you think that more lands has no effect? Have you tested this theory?

    Energy flux does very little against competent shops pilots, especially once ravager is out. You're talking a 3 mana enchantment with a triggered ability they can respond to. Remember, shops is just so much faster these days and ravager laughs at energy flux. By the time you get 3 mana on the board to cast it you need 4-5 mana. By the time you have that shops has you on your heels. When it triggers they tap artifact mana, sac it to ravager and use the floating mana to pay the rest. Or they just pay for ballista and 1 or 2 spheres, let the rest go the yard and finish you off.

    And @ChubbyRain - yes absolutely more artifact mana can help. But only if you win the die roll or they dont have 1 of 9 sphere effects out on turn 1.

    The tools are out there. Fragmentize, pithing needle, ancient grudge, hurkyls recall, rebuild, even swords to plowshares can all slow down/limit/stop shops. Some of the cards are even versatile against other match ups - fragmentize can help against oath, it can help against landstill if they play stony silence etc. Swords is pretty universal. Generic bounce like repeal can be used in multiple match ups. Pithing needle is such a staple against any BUT gush mentor its almost main deckable.

    We have answers at our disposal. Adding lands just isn't going to get the job done for mentor decks, though.

    It's pretty important that there are basic lands to fetch for each color. or at least and Island and a mountain/plains/forest for artifact hate. You're right that developing your board of mana one by one won't catch you up, but it helps. And as was mentioned running artifact mana makes a huge difference.

    If you're on the draw and they land two spheres on turn one, sure, moxen aren't going to help. Otherwise though, you can play them for one mana a piece, or two in the case of sol ring, and develop a board.



  • @wappla said in April 24th, 2017 Banned and Restricted update: GUSH AND PROBE/TOP in Legacy:

    Shops was half the daily cashes last night. Rich Shay, who spent the better part of the last year using his celebrity to moan about Gush homogenizing blue decks, played Stax.

    No one made the argument that restricting Gush would hurt Workshops more vocally than Mr Shay, and yet a day after the announcement, he is playing Workshops. The gross hypocrisy aside, this once again illustrates how idiotic the argument against Gush was. It took the very person saying restricting Gush would hurt Workshops a full 24 hours before registering Workshops. Just amazing...

    Or... it's entirely possible two days into the new meta that he, like the vast majority of us, isn't sure what the best approach is yet so he's testing different types of decks? He played Punishing Oath the first day of restrictions, so no he really didn't immediately jump to Shops, he's feeling things out like everyone else, and because he championed getting rid of Gush doesn't mean he was somehow obligated to immediately present us with a new blue deck that solves the format. "Shops being hurt" is a predicted outcome of a meta that has had time to adjust and sort itself out, which hasn't yet been the case.


  • TMD Supporter

    @Khahan said in April 24th, 2017 Banned and Restricted update: GUSH AND PROBE/TOP in Legacy:

    Can we please stop spouting this nonsense that the way to beat shops is having more lands in your deck? Its just not true. Its been said on these boards in the past and its been shot down on these boards in the past.

    And this is why mana denial decks will keep winning.



  • @wappla

    Rich Shay, who spent the better part of the last year using his celebrity to moan about Gush homogenizing blue decks, played Stax.

    Yes, I've played Stax. I've played Punishing Oath. You can look forward to seeing a list posted today that involves As Foretold. As is often the case, I play a variety of decks.

    No one made the argument that restricting Gush would hurt Workshops more vocally than Mr Shay, and yet a day after the announcement, he is playing Workshops.

    I never said that restricting Gush would kill Shops. And that wouldn't be a good goal. Restricting Gush would free up space for decks choked out of the format. In fact, I believe that Stax is one such deck.

    The gross hypocrisy aside, this once again illustrates how idiotic the argument against Gush was.

    I am afraid that whoever taught you the definition of "hypocrisy" did you a severe disservice. At your age, you still apparently don't know what the word means. I would be a hypocrite if I said never to play Shops and then did so myself. Instead, I have advocated that Shops would be hurt by the restriction of Gush. I stand by that.

    The metagame is going to be in a state flux for a little while. During that time, raw power is going to be at a premium. Reactive decks, designed to tackle an existing metagame, will only be able to develop once things are more established. We've seen a lot of diversity among successful decks, with Control Dredge winning last night.

    I am going to continue trying new decks. You could do that as well. Or you could spend your days whining about my deck choices. Either way.




  • Administrators

    AS FORETOLD????



  • @Brass-Man Yup, been running it too alongside 4 x Ancestral Vision and that's powerful. I truly believe @The-Atog-Lord can make it work better than me though.



  • @The-Atog-Lord said in April 24th, 2017 Banned and Restricted update: GUSH AND PROBE/TOP in Legacy:

    I never said that restricting Gush would kill Shops. And that wouldn't be a good goal. Restricting Gush would free up space for decks choked out of the format. In fact, I believe that Stax is one such deck.

    I have advocated that Shops would be hurt by the restriction of Gush. I stand by that.

    Either straight contradiction or you think Shops in general will be hurt but Smokestacks in particular will be helped



  • @The-Atog-Lord self-deception is notoriously hard to detect



  • @wappla said in April 24th, 2017 Banned and Restricted update: GUSH AND PROBE/TOP in Legacy:

    @The-Atog-Lord self-deception is notoriously hard to detect

    I agree. That is why I am helpfully pointing yours out.



  • @The-Atog-Lord you can bully me all you want. You can sit in front of your webcam and say whatever you want. You can play whatever decks you want.

    But I'm right, and you're wrong. You might be able to deny it now, but weeks and months will pass and the data will accumulate. I'll be ready to accept your apology at any point.

    I'm sure you're far more experienced at internet flame wars than me, so I'm stepping out here.



  • @wappla One person is showing bullying behavior here, and it's not Rich.


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