Replacing Probe Post Restrictions



  • While I know @Smmenen has spoken at length about how the Gush restriction will really just bring older tech back online to create more aggressive mentor decks, the restriction of Probe hits both Gush and Paradoxical Outcome strategies.

    That said, is it still a must include one-of? And. What will come in to replace those three slots of Probe? Or for instance will Storm look to things like Misstep or Pact (hah) to protect a tendrils turn and build storm count? Delve spells? More hate? Interested to hear what folks have to say.

    With that in mind, I suppose it's brace for Peak Article impact as people have been holding back set reviews/waiting on this announcement. Anyone else bummed we didn't get anything Unrestricted?


  • TMD Supporter

    Preordain jumps to mind if you're not already playing it. Some Storm decks might want more discard like Thoughtseize.

    It really depends on what you were trying to do with Probe in the first place. Sensei's Divining Top is pretty good for Mentor decks as it allows you to make tokens by using its card-draw ability.



  • @BandsWithOthers
    Yep pretty bummed though I wasn't holding my breath for Unrestrictions.
    Preordain makes sense to go up in copies to fill in for the -3 Probes.


  • TMD Supporter

    Well before Probe caught on, we just played with more impact spells like Yawgmoths Will, Demonic, Tinker, Time Vault, etc.

    Originally, Probe wasn't even played in Storm that much because it's a very shallow magic card in a deck that wants Bomby spells.



  • @Islandswamp said in Replacing Probe Post Restrictions:

    Some Storm decks might want more discard like Thoughtseize.

    @desolutionist said in Replacing Probe Post Restrictions:

    Well before Probe caught on, we just played with more impact spells like Yawgmoths Will, Demonic, Tinker, Time Vault, etc.

    Originally, Probe wasn't even played in Storm that much because it's a very shallow magic card in a deck that wants Bomby spells.

    [Paradoxical Oath] I'm thinking my 4 Probes become 1 Probe, 1 Duress/Thoughtseize (as much for hand visibility as for discard) 1 Time Vault 1 Key


  • Administrators

    @Islandswamp summed up my feelings exactly



  • I was also skeptical of probe in this shell, but the effect is pretty special when sometimes you risk running out of gas on a potential storm turn. It gives you just that little bit of extra oomph and lets you dig even deeper than your PO for 4.

    I know that Storm has its detractors as an "easy" strategy, but that aside, I've already been running Demo and Yawg along with the Probes, simply because I have enjoyed the more versatile, controlling Storm as opposed to the more belcher-ish approach (Hence earlier posts re subbing out the Chrome Mox and LED etc). I'm even already running Key/Vault. Perhaps I am merely a scrub '-)

    Maybe this is the opportunity to side in some more null rod hate...



  • I know Dark Petition Storm is a little out of favor at the moment, but I still like it. I'm not sure what to replace the probes with in this deck. More discard seems excessive since many lists are already running as many as 6 Duress effects.

    I feel like you might want something that's better against shops? But on the other hand are you now more likely to include slower more reactive blue decks such that you want to strip their hand more?

    I'm wondering about adding another Chain of Vapor, maybe a second copy of Hurkyll's Recall since these can be proactive against sphere effects and also help build storm. Or maybe as was mentioned you could add Misstep, but it's so dead against shops/eldrazi.


  • TMD Supporter

    @Stasis_Kismet

    Dark Confidant, Preordain, Windfall, Tinker (Inkwell/Jar/Time Vault), Jace, Snapcaster, Monastery Mentor, Treasure Cruise, Gush, Paradoxical Outcome, Sensei's Divining Top, Repeal, Fatal Push, Abrupt Decay, Slice and Dice, Rebuild, Sudden Shock, Mystical Tutor, Imperial Seal, Infernal Contract, Painful Truths, Gifts Ungiven, Dig through Time, Frantic Search, Wheel of Fortune, etc.

    There are a ton of options.


  • TMD Supporter

    For dp storm, my plan a is tinker, memory jar, and either mystical tutor or preordain. Possibly should just be 3 preordain though.



  • I ran dp storm in the daily last night adding 2 preordains and a mana vault replacing the 3 probes. The preordains were a good replacement. Like previously stated, already running 4 duress and two TS, so more discard seemed unnecessary.


  • Administrators

    I'm pretty convinced that if you were running Git Probes and not Preordains before the restriction, your deck was misbuilt. If you're running less than 4 Preordains right now, you should absolutely cut cards until you have them.



  • I just got back into vintage online with do storm. None of the lists I saw were running Preordain, let alone 4. It was really good for me last night, and I think you are correct on 4. Still playing around with the specific numbers. Going to try to fit in 2 more and see how that plays.



  • Good call on 4 Preordain @Brass-Man . I am in the same boat as @mourningpalace in that I came back to Vintage after about four or five years and Storm was an easy place to find some traction as I loved Steel City Vault back in the day and Storm still runs Draw7, Will, Key/Vault and other big bombs. It's easy, fun and a great calling card for Vintage if you are trying to get new players into the format at your LGS or beyond.

    In fact, I feel like a lot of the complaint against gush and the speed of blue currently is actually just masked nostalgia for Mana Drain.

    So when I dusted off my cards and started looking around online, I saw all of the lists with Probe and I was skeptical. But. It really FEELS sweet when you are trying to dig through your deck without running out of gas, which can honestly be a big problem in Storm. Just like with SCV on unlucky occasions, you just sort of whiff and Probe was a good way to fill your hand when you are desperately trying to go off.

    BUT Preordain might just be better. I'm absolutely willing to try it out! I'm already running 1. My question is...

    If you bring Preordain up to 4, should something be cut to leave room for the one probe, or is it worthwhile to maintain probe as a singleton?

    @desolutionist Storm is running a lot of those cards already, in some ways it seems that the trick is replacing the utility of Probe in Storm's worst Thorn/Rod matchups. I can understand why @Stasis_Kismet would be toying with another Chain of Vapor. I agree absolutely that Probe feels a little meh in a deck that wants to be Yawgwilling, similarly to how I sort of hate LED and Chrome Mox in there. I don't have my decklist right now, but I will post it to see how suboptimal it might be at the moment.



  • I have been running a discard heavy list with 3 Cabal Therapy (and 4 Duress) and 4 Probes. I very much like running 7 or even 8 discard spells so a turn 1 discard spell, followed by another discard spell to protect your turn 2 play gives a great feeling of security. So for me the choice was pretty easy after the Probe restriction: Keep 1 Probe, add 3 Preordains and replace the Therapies with Thoughtseizes. I have always shied away from a lot of Thoughtseizes in addition to 4 Probes because of the heavy life usage, but now Thoughtseize feels great.
    I very much hoped for a Mental Misstep restriction instead of Probe to give Ritual based Storm (and other combo) a boost. I do not think that these restrictions where the correct ones. They seem fine, if you are just looking at Mentor and how to weaken it, but both Gush and Probe where heavily used in decks, that where not even close to problematic and even struggling to stay relevant like TPS/DPS and Doomsday. I cant see Doomsday being remotely playable with Gush and Probe restricted to be honest, which saddens me, since this is a fatal cascading effect of restrictions that where not meant to harm this kind of strategies.


  • Administrators

    @BandsWithOthers said in Replacing Probe Post Restrictions:

    If you bring Preordain up to 4, should something be cut to leave room for the one probe, or is it worthwhile to maintain probe as a singleton?

    Could you paste your list?



  • @BandsWithOthers Yeah, without seeing the list and I would even venture, without TESTING the list, there is no way to definitively answer your question about including Probe as a singleton.

    But... I am guessing that probe as a singleton in a combo deck would still be very good since it is great with Vamp Tutor and Mystical Tutor, it's great if you are using Cabal Therapy, obviously. And it's just great for any deck that will have to risk the entire game on a turn sometimes. Decks that go "all in" will tend to benefit the most from seeing the other person's hand. One of the worst things you can do in combo is to not go for it out of fear of a FoW, only to find out they didn't even have it.

    But testing is king.



  • @BandsWithOthers said in Replacing Probe Post Restrictions:

    If you bring Preordain up to 4, should something be cut to leave room for the one probe, or is it worthwhile to maintain probe as a singleton?

    People are so scared to answer hypotheticals, this may be part of the reason why getting good discussions going on this site is so difficult.

    I would venture that probe as a singleton is still flexible to maintain a spot in U decks. If you have it in an opening hand, its gas. You get all that info and replace it with another card. If you draw it late game you can see if its a clear path to go off. Or if you are refilling its simply 2 life to replace effectively making your deck 59 cards.

    Basically its never a dead card. Now back to the first comment I made - testing may eventually prove otherwise. But I'm willing to go so far out on a limb here and say that its good enough to use until testing/results prove it shouldn't be used.



  • @Khahan said in Replacing Probe Post Restrictions:

    People are so scared to answer hypotheticals, this may be part of the reason why getting good discussions going on this site is so difficult.

    I'm more than happy to answer hypotheticals. Probe does the same things it did before. Fuels Delve, creates Monks and Elementals, Flips JVP, helps navigate hate in control and combo matchups. It was actually complementary with Preordain as it helped you make informed scry decisions like "do I need misstep or pyroblast or flusterstorm?" Those things haven't changed and Probe should still see play for those reasons.



  • I don't see the down side to running the one of probe unless you absolutely needed to make a cut for something and that was the best option. It's never really a dead draw, as it can just replace itself and gain you information.


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