SMIP Podcast # 69: Three Months Later AKA The Q2 Metagame



  • Why would anyone not play Academy Rector for Yawgmoth's Bargain and Omniscience, if Flash gets unrestricted?


  • TMD Supporter

    @guest said in SMIP Podcast # 69: Three Months Later AKA The Q2 Metagame:

    Why would anyone not play Academy Rector for Yawgmoth's Bargain and Omniscience, if Flash gets unrestricted?

    It depends on if there is a Rector-Flash win condition that makes it more appealing than Hulk-Flash, which is already a win condition.



  • @hierarchnoble First flash gets bargain, second flash/show and tell gets Omniscience, and then you're playing Yugioh. "Blue Eyes, white Aeon's Torn, Go!"


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    I'm almost done this episode, and I've really enjoyed it despite the subject matter. Everyone has a list, a wish for a format where "their" deck(s) are playable, and it's incredibly hard for most players to be objective about their analysis. It's especially difficult to slog through when the loudest players lack data analysis skills, rules knowledge, or sometimes even any history of actually playing. I myself have fallen victim to severe misinformation about how Old School works, and gotten angry when that resulted in muddled and contradictory information. I know what it's like to be wrong and lash out instead of cooling down and learning, and I wish others would also take the time to learn before expressing an opinion. My wish, whether I'm an Any Given Weekend player or just borrowing the most recent 4-0 hatebear deck because Top Deck Games is having a Mox event, is for the format to survive. And you, Steve and Kevin, are showcasing an intent to save the format. Thank you.


  • TMD Supporter

    @hierarchnoble said in SMIP Podcast # 69: Three Months Later AKA The Q2 Metagame:

    I'm almost done this episode, and I've really enjoyed it despite the subject matter. Everyone has a list, a wish for a format where "their" deck(s) are playable, and it's incredibly hard for most players to be objective about their analysis. It's especially difficult to slog through when the loudest players lack data analysis skills, rules knowledge, or sometimes even any history of actually playing. I myself have fallen victim to severe misinformation about how Old School works, and gotten angry when that resulted in muddled and contradictory information. I know what it's like to be wrong and lash out instead of cooling down and learning, and I wish others would also take the time to learn before expressing an opinion.

    Can you unpack this? I'm curious what misinformation about Old School you encountered and how it misled you.

    Thanks for the kind words. This is a particularly difficult podcast to execute, let alone put together, because the data doesn't lend itself to an audio format, but I thought Kevin and I pulled it off.



  • @smmenen This question might sound pointed, though really don't mean it to. But do you all test at all in preparation for discussions about B/R lists. A deck with 4 Libraries? A Flash deck? A Bargain deck?

    If so, what do those look like. If not, why not? I understand we can't prove a negative. But we could potentially just prove brokenness, and at the least we could get an idea of the experience of playing with or against certain hypothetical decks...


  • TMD Supporter

    I've definitely tested "banned" decks before. I even wrote multiple articles on this subject during my 8 year SCG tenure. Since I am only proposing to unrestrict Bargain, I didn't test it for reasons covered here.



  • Unrestrict Ancestral Recall....aaaaand discuss!

    eats popcorn



  • I'm just gonna say again. Unrestriction of windfall is a terrible idea.

    Build an old school style academy deck, put 4 leyline on anticipation 4 days undoing and 4 serum powered in the side. Win literally every post SB game on turn 0-1 against non blue decks.

    By the way really enjoyed the episode



  • @walking.dude maybe this is just my interpretation, but I thought the idea of the conversation was that maybe the format needed something unrestricted that was a bit broken, so that at least there was something not shops, not mentor, that was an option; same idea with the Flash unrestriction, but maybe that was just how I digested the information. while that might lead to some rock/paper/scissors match-ups, it may be better than the 2-deck format that everyone is talking about on trying to solve...

    I really enjoy these podcasts; i currently subscribe to 12 podcasts, 3 or 4 are magic related, and this is the one I look forward to the most. Great job as always Steve & Kevin!



  • @smmenen Well if you guys are ever looking for content (though this doesn't seem to be a limiting factor for ya'll), I would love to see, hear, hear about that sort of testing.


  • TMD Supporter

    @walking-dude said in SMIP Podcast # 69: Three Months Later AKA The Q2 Metagame:

    I'm just gonna say again. Unrestriction of windfall is a terrible idea.

    Build an old school style academy deck, put 4 leyline on anticipation 4 days undoing and 4 serum powered in the side. Win literally every post SB game on turn 0-1 against non blue decks.

    I haven't tested unrestricted Windfall, but I don't think that's remotely true.

    To fire off Turn 1 Windfall, you generally need three separate mana sources. The exceptions are Mana Crypt and Black Lotus. But even Sol Ring, Mana Vault, and Dark Ritual usually need a separate source to get started, and you'll need a blue source on top of that.

    So, even if you built a deck with 4 Opal, 4 Chrome Mox, 4 Rituals, some number of Spirit Guides and all of the restricted mana, and you have Windfall in your opening hand, that's not close to 100% Turn 1 Windfall. If you could do that, then Day's Undoing would be a much better card, and it's not. Even then, how much better is that than Paradoxical Outcome or Belcher? Not much, probably, because it's symmetrical.

    And, even if you can do that, you still have fundamental problems:

    1. The opponent can draw Force/Misstep/MBT - even Shop players can run MBT

    2. Leyline and Serum Powder take up space, making it less likely you can resolve early Windfall.

    3. If your opponent mulligans a few times, the Windfall is much worse. It's not that rare to have an opponent mulligan to 5 or 6, which makes Windfall that much worse. That's why it's not a true draw7.

    I think one reason Windfall is a potentially attractive unrestriction is because it's synergy with Hurkyl's Recall makes it a potentially very strong anti-Shop tactic. Shops are the biggest monster in the format right now.


  • TMD Supporter

    @smmenen said in SMIP Podcast # 69: Three Months Later AKA The Q2 Metagame:

    I think one reason Windfall is a potentially attractive unrestriction is because it's synergy with Hurkyl's Recall makes it a potentially very strong anti-Shop tactic. Shops are the biggest monster in the format right now.

    I don't buy that. It's a 6+ mana combo that most likely ends with you passing the turn to an opponent who has 7+ cards in hand and mana already in play.


  • TMD Supporter

    @desolutionist said in SMIP Podcast # 69: Three Months Later AKA The Q2 Metagame:

    @smmenen said in SMIP Podcast # 69: Three Months Later AKA The Q2 Metagame:

    I think one reason Windfall is a potentially attractive unrestriction is because it's synergy with Hurkyl's Recall makes it a potentially very strong anti-Shop tactic. Shops are the biggest monster in the format right now.

    I don't buy that. It's a 6+ mana combo that most likely ends with you passing the turn to an opponent who has 7+ cards in hand and mana already in play.

    The goal would be to design the deck to fire off a Hurkyl's, then drop a bunch of mana, cast Windfall, draw a ton of cards, and win that turn. In other words, a modern TPS deck rather than a speed combo deck like Belcher.


  • TMD Supporter

    @smmenen said in SMIP Podcast # 69: Three Months Later AKA The Q2 Metagame:

    @desolutionist said in SMIP Podcast # 69: Three Months Later AKA The Q2 Metagame:

    @smmenen said in SMIP Podcast # 69: Three Months Later AKA The Q2 Metagame:

    I think one reason Windfall is a potentially attractive unrestriction is because it's synergy with Hurkyl's Recall makes it a potentially very strong anti-Shop tactic. Shops are the biggest monster in the format right now.

    I don't buy that. It's a 6+ mana combo that most likely ends with you passing the turn to an opponent who has 7+ cards in hand and mana already in play.

    The goal would be to design the deck to fire off a Hurkyl's, then drop a bunch of mana, cast Windfall, draw a ton of cards, and win that turn. In other words, a modern TPS deck rather than a speed combo deck like Belcher.

    How is that better than just casting Hurkyls eot and playing Dark Pettion on your turn?

    I think the card that is good against Shops is actually just Hurkyls. (Not windfall)



  • @smmenen @Walking Dude

    This deck, which I painstakingly designed by plagiarizing every good designer I could, over the course of 11 minutes, does the following:

    Casts turn 1 WIndfall about 12.5% of the time.
    Casts some draw 7 (if we include Windfall) something on the order of 20% of the time. (This also includes Tinkering for Jar)
    Casts Turn 1 free Outcome for at least 3 about 8% of the time. (this math is very difficult, but I'm certain it's not less that 8)
    Also wins by assembling Vault Key on turn 1 around 5 % of the time. (Without first casting 1 of the aforementioned spells.)

    Has a whole host of other great turn 1 plays like Mind's Desire non-sense and Yawg non-sense. As well as just Probing, seeing there's no hurry, and going off turn 2.

    I estimate it would win turn 1 on the play, with perfect lines, somewhere around 30% of the time, maybe high 20s, assuming there is no interaction with the opponent aside from the 10 drills, or the post Time Walk Colossus face punch. So... something like Long.dec. Probably a very little less potent.



  • I think whenever unrestrictions are mentioned, people go into a frenzy and start panicking. This happened for all the last unrestrictions, each one being heralded as the end of Vintage.

    Relax, the card pool can handle almost anything. I think dangerous unrestrictions ARE the way to go, rather than having a restricted list a mile long. Constantly balancing the format by adding more restrictions is not the way to go, in my opinion. It's not a sustainable approach.

    Kevin's proposal is probably the most interesting to me, even if it's the most "dangerous".



  • @hrishi Maybe we should test it... you know... before people actually make decisions?



  • Yea if only Wotc gave a shit enuff about vintage to get a team of ppl to playtest ideas before making decisions


  • TMD Supporter

    I would love to see how they handle unbannings with Modern with vintage unrestrictions. I would rather see a broken combo for one b/r cycle instead of just trying to restrict everything until we are blue in the face (happy unintentional pun).

    We can talk hypethotical all we want, but not many people are going to put a ton of time into testing out hypethotical decks. The only true way to know is to unrestricted and see who is right and who is wrong. Granted there are the obvious no-no (p9).


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