Vintage Challenge - 9/2/2017



  • @desolutionist

    More legit than top 8ing a 16 person event. Probably less legit than top 8ing a 64 person event.


  • TMD Supporter

    So the "win percentage against the field" averages wins of an archetype against random opponents. What if we were to calculate numberWithWinningRecord_Archetype / totalNumber_Archetype? How might this data look from that perspective?

    Shops: 44%
    Paradoxical: 25%
    Young Pyromancer: 50%

    @diophan is the classification, "Big Blue", appropriate for decks like 7th place (Egget's)? In my opinion this is more along the lines of Young Pyromancer because of the 4 Preordains, Dacks, delve spells, and spot removal (Plowshares, Wear/Tear) There's no Yawgmoth's Will or tutors or anything to really "go big" with besides Tinker-BSC, which I'm assuming is basically just Mentor #2.



  • @desolutionist said in Vintage Challenge - 9/2/2017:

    So the "win percentage against the field" averages wins of an archetype against random opponents. What if we were to calculate numberWithWinningRecord_Archetype / totalNumber_Archetype? How might this data look from that perspective?

    The problem with this metric is that 50% is not the center thus making it more difficult to interpret, especially since you are counting decks that went 3-3 in the denominator and not the numerator.

    The population number for this metric is: 32%. That means Shops and Young Pyro both exceeded the population level by a wide margin.



  • @desolutionist said in Vintage Challenge - 9/2/2017:

    @chubbyrain

    How many restrictions has Shops had? After every Shop restriction over the last few years, it begins on the decline and and eventually emerges as the best deck. Looking at the performance of Shops at this event, it's not unreasonable to estimate the meta is headed for a similar spot. The Jeskai Mentor deck can go back to what it looked like in some of its earlier forms with cards like Stoneforge Mystic and Lightning Bolts to combat BUG Fish and and Delver. I expect the URW decks to not lose much steam. I think the decks are a little more attractive to me without the Mentor madness, but there definitely won't be any drastic changes to the meta besides Shops eventually climbing the ranks.

    For the next event, the top 16 will play the same decks. The bottom players will netdeck those decks. And the middle pack will probably tune their decks up and switch decks more akin to the top decks. Maybe a handful of players bring something new to the table, and hopefully get a top 8, which might stick but most likely not.

    I strongly agree with this assessment. I think some people don't quite understand how overpowered Shops had become before the restriction of Chalice. There were also numerous Mentor decks only running 2 copies. I'm not sure that those decks are really affected.

    The only way the meta will change is if there is a complete change of culture in terms of how players are building their decks, or if there are continued restrictions that force them to change.



  • Don't want to rush anyone, but I did want to check in, should we expect to eventualy see this analysis for the 9/9 challenge? Or have the governing powers decided to shut these down to prevent the metagame from converging on leovold bug or whatever the new high win percentage deck is post restrictions?



  • @walking-dude
    Problem is that eventually Desolutionist was right and Vintage is a 2 deck format full of netdeckers. It's like the last Challenge was scripted :D Well, let's see what the new season of VSL brings to the table.



  • @wintage There's no reason why the VSL should affect this. It's not like the VSL is chock full of brewers who are going to break open the format. The best brewers in the format aren't even included in this VSL season, such as @brianpk80 who instantly 5-0'd with his brew after the B&R update.



  • @hrishi said in Vintage Challenge - 9/2/2017:

    @wintage There's no reason why the VSL should affect this. It's not like the VSL is chock full of brewers who are going to break open the format. The best brewers in the format aren't even included in this VSL season, such as @brianpk80 who instantly 5-0'd with his brew after the B&R update.

    One could argue that it was the VSL circle jerk last season that got Gush and Gitaxian Probe restricted.



  • @seksaybish said in Vintage Challenge - 9/2/2017:

    @hrishi said in Vintage Challenge - 9/2/2017:

    @wintage There's no reason why the VSL should affect this. It's not like the VSL is chock full of brewers who are going to break open the format. The best brewers in the format aren't even included in this VSL season, such as @brianpk80 who instantly 5-0'd with his brew after the B&R update.

    One could argue that it was the VSL circle jerk last season that got Gush and Gitaxian Probe restricted.

    I agree, and I'm not discounting that possibility. Restrictions might indeed happen because of the VSL. I just do not believe we are going to see crazy innovative decks that we do not already see from some of the great brewers this format has.



  • @hrishi Randy Buehler stated that no player can play the same list more than once this season.



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