Vintage Challenge - 9/9/2017



  • We had 42 players played in the latest Vintage Challenge. Congratulations to mlovbo for winning with shops! PSA for the Challenges: 31 players actually stuck through the entire tournament and every single one got at least their entry fee back. For anyone on the fence concerning buying into Vintage MTGO: the combination of leagues and the value of the Challenges make this a great time jump in.

    Thanks to @chubbyrain for recording match results.

    1. mlovbo - Inspector Shops
    2. BadBrain - Inspector Shops
    3. diophan - RUG Pyromancer
    4. Ark4n - URg Delver
    5. brianpk80 - Paradoxical BrianKelly.dec
    6. The Atog Lord - URW if I call this Jeskai Rich will complain Turbo Xerox
    7. pedroj - Eldrazi Shops
    8. Butakov - Paradoxical Esper

    Top 32 Decklists:
    https://magic.wizards.com/en/articles/archive/mtgo-standings/vintage-challenge-2017-09-11-0

    Archetypes:

    Tags:

    We have been playing around with the archetypes and tags a bit after the recent restrictions. Let us know what you think.

    Spreadsheet:
    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Fud0I4zYMppHoqjomxec577SolyWw40k6AgVwflj-b8/edit?usp=sharing

    Data Collection Note: Matt and I will be at Eternal Extravaganza this weekend so if anyone can volunteer to watch the replays from the sub 32 decklists and record the match results we would great appreciate it.



  • Thank you!

    I really appreciate the work you do to make this happen.


  • TMD Supporter

    @diophan said in Vintage Challenge - 9/9/2017:

    1. The Atog Lord - URW if I call this Jeskai Rich will complain Turbo Xerox

    I understand your deck doesn't run any Jeskai wedge cards from Khans block, @The-Atog-Lord, but it doesn't run any on-brand corporate office technology either.



  • Of the top 32 there was overall slightly less Misstep thanks to some Outcome decks and a Hatebear deck. Of the decks that can cast Fluster/Pyro those decks played an average of 4.2 'dead vs. shops' cards maindeck and it appears shops finished 1 and 2.

    alt text



  • Good job on the top 8 deck names.



  • Sweet Merciless Mistcutter Brian Kelly!
    How do the delvers taste?



  • Thank you for compiling this.


  • TMD Supporter

    It is interesting that the shops decks have such a high win rate here. The last 3 days there haven't been any 5-0 shops decks in the leagues and fewer than 5 decks posted.

    According to the "all the league results in one place" thread

    Another day with only 4 lists. It's worth noting that the selection mechanism makes league results an inexact metagame snap shot. If there are fewer than 5 decks however it means that there were no 5-0s from any archetypes not seen here.



  • Thank you for putting this together, it's really nice to be able to look at this post and get a run-down of what happened.

    @garbageaggro said in Vintage Challenge - 9/9/2017:

    It is interesting that the shops decks have such a high win rate here. The last 3 days there haven't been any 5-0 shops decks in the leagues and fewer than 5 decks posted.

    According to the "all the league results in one place" thread

    Another day with only 4 lists. It's worth noting that the selection mechanism makes league results an inexact metagame snap shot. If there are fewer than 5 decks however it means that there were no 5-0s from any archetypes not seen here.

    In my opinion, the number of 5-0s is not the best indicator of whether a deck is doing well at a macro-level. I know that this is the only public data available, but if one deck goes 5-0 in one League and then 1-4 in the next and another deck goes 4-1 in one and 4-1 in the next, which did better? I think Workshops is much more of a 4-1 or 3-2 deck rather than a 5-0 deck since the B&R.



  • @will

    Agreed. Reporting of only 5-0's skews the picture. Take the Shops win % of these challenges of: ~60%.

    The probability of it going 5-0 is only ~8%. That means you'd have to see 15 people play Workshops for it to even have an expected value of 1.



  • @garbageaggro said in Vintage Challenge - 9/9/2017:

    It is interesting that the shops decks have such a high win rate here. The last 3 days there haven't been any 5-0 shops decks in the leagues and fewer than 5 decks posted.

    According to the "all the league results in one place" thread

    Another day with only 4 lists. It's worth noting that the selection mechanism makes league results an inexact metagame snap shot. If there are fewer than 5 decks however it means that there were no 5-0s from any archetypes not seen here.

    The non shops decks are playing 4.2 textless cards game one vs. shops. The couple of blue decks that eschew Misstep are PO and are naturally dogs to spheres and revokers. I would expect shops to have a reasonable win rate in such an event. If those 4.2 cards were Snares, Pierces, Sabotages or removal I'd expect Shops win rate to go down, especially with the paucity of sphere effects post restriction.



  • @nedleeds And the matchup vs Blue would go down.

    One is 66.7% of the metagame, the other is 23.8%.

    At this point, you are just being willfully ignorant...



  • @chubbyrain said in Vintage Challenge - 9/9/2017:

    @nedleeds And the matchup vs Blue would go down.

    One is 66.7% of the metagame, the other is 23.8%.

    At this point, you are just being willfully ignorant...

    I didn't say you wouldn't lose match win vs. blue. You are being willfully combative :) He asked about the win % vs. shops.

    Cutting Missteps absolutely would cost you in most blue mirrors, probably vs. Dredge also.



  • @nedleeds I've been known to be combative :p

    The problem is that for a person piloting a Blue deck and wanting to win a tournament, they are heavily incentivized to run cards like Misstep and Pyroblast that are frankly amazing against 2/3 of the field. The cards you listed (Snare, Pierce, Sabo, etc...) are more conditional (they have considerably less utility on the draw, along with fewer targets, being situationally dead, and less efficient) and have less upside. And they are all vulnerable to Misstep, which incentivizes running Misstep both to combat them and to protect them.

    So, my point is that this isn't a strategic line of discussion. It is not reasonable for Blue decks to cut MM and Pyroblast, given the current format and metagame. Which means it's a complaint about the format and an attempt to lobby for a MM restriction. I thought we weren't doing restriction discussions outside of the official thread? As for it being a complaint, I respect your opinion on the matter. Magic is a game and players should be entitled to their thoughts on what is fun or not for them. My issue is with these threads becoming a lightning rod for such expressions. Like the previous metagame critiques, it became the key topic of these tournament threads on a weekly basis. And that's really tedious in the long term.



  • @chubbyrain said in Vintage Challenge - 9/9/2017:

    @nedleeds I've been known to be combative :p

    The problem is that for a person piloting a Blue deck and wanting to win a tournament, they are heavily incentivized to run cards like Misstep and Pyroblast that are frankly amazing against 2/3 of the field. The cards you listed (Snare, Pierce, Sabo, etc...) are more conditional (they have considerably less utility on the draw, along with fewer targets, being situationally dead, and less efficient) and have less upside. And they are all vulnerable to Misstep, which incentivizes running Misstep both to combat them and to protect them.

    So, my point is that this isn't a strategic line of discussion. It is not reasonable for Blue decks to cut MM and Pyroblast, given the current format and metagame. Which means it's a complaint about the format and an attempt to lobby for a MM restriction. I thought we weren't doing restriction discussions outside of the official thread? As for it being a complaint, I respect your opinion on the matter. Magic is a game and players should be entitled to their thoughts on what is fun or not for them. My issue is with these threads becoming a lightning rod for such expressions. Like the previous metagame critiques, it became the key topic of these tournament threads on a weekly basis. And that's really tedious in the long term.

    Tough but also fair. It's not that I'm opining about Missteps restriction here directly, more indirectly by presenting some ( biased towards my position) numbers. The ebb and flow of shops efficacy as the average number of Missteps, Pyros and Flusters increases or decreases is so obvious there's probably no need to even state it anymore.



  • @vaughnbros

    It's also worth noting that the number of days we have fewer than 5 lists is fairly small.

    Any day there are 5 or more 5-0 decks there could be any number of 5-0s that just were not randomly chosen to be in the 5 that we see. So our ability to make inferences is limited.

    On days with less than 5 lists, it tells us something (presumably that fewer than 32 people played a through a league that day if a deck is at 50%).

    That's real information, but we shouldn't make too much of it. The sample size of days with less than 5 lists is small. It's also not random, we are more likely to see that on days where other events like the vintage challenge are being held. It's possible that players who play in the challenge get their fix for the day and don't also run a league.

    So after all that, the summary is: leagues are interesting, and it's cool to see what decks show up, but don't draw too many conclusions, and if you do draw conclusions don't be too confident about them.


  • TMD Supporter

    @walking-dude said in Vintage Challenge - 9/9/2017:

    it's cool to see what decks show up, but don't draw too many conclusions, and if you do draw conclusions don't be too confident about them.

    AKA all Vintage results, especially from the midwest.


  • TMD Supporter

    Hey Ryan,

    Are you posting stats for any of the more recent challenges?



  • @smmenen said in Vintage Challenge - 9/9/2017:

    Hey Ryan,

    Are you posting stats for any of the more recent challenges?

    Poor discourse in these threads probably drove him away.



  • @smmenen We should have a post up later today for the last few.



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