@will Then yeah - I already mentioned shops. Knowing you are on shops doesn't benefit a blue player...what are they going to mull into that would cripple you? Knowledge vs mastery is only applicable when facing a deck the hinges on one axis - like bazaar for dredge or artifact mana for PO storm. And that's also if you maindeck ways to hit bazaar or shut down artifacts (waste/rod). If you are facing blue, fish, or workshops, there's literally no maindeck card you'd want to mull a good hand away to find.
The gains of knowing your opponent's deck is limited to certain decks - namely dredge, PO...maybe oath if you maindeck something like cage/priest/decay or are on the mirror and want a hand of orchards as opposed to oath. Decks like workshop (aggro or prison) blue control, big blue, most fish builds are immune to your opponent knowing your deck because there's nothing they'd prefer to see over a good opening 7 against you.
@thewhitedragon69 your opponent won the die roll and choses to begin.
You draw a 7 of :Mental Misstep, Flusterstorm, Mox Ruby, Mox Sapphire, Preordain, Dack Fayden, Treasure Cruise. Its a fine hand in most cases i would say.
But if you know your opponent is on shops, this hand just loses immediatly to any turn 1 taxing effect. You should mulligan this hand if you kbow your opponent is on shops, making the shops deck (and pretty much every deck out there) not immune to knowing the matchup.
Sure, knowing what your opponent is on benefits you sometimes more or less, dependent on the deck, but its never absolutely irrelevant.
Still, really mastering a deck and knowing all the fine lines, instead of constantly switching just to suprise your opponents, but playing them all mediocre seems the way more solid approach.
Playing a spread of decks medium well is a recipe for failure. Being varied is good, but you can achieve the same effect off actually being varied by throwing a curveball every so often. I'm primarily a blue pilot, but I've shown up to events playing Shops or Dredge on occasion, so people know that I could be on other decks.
Even from those limited experiences, I will attest that playing poorly loses a lot more games than having opponents mull some marginal hands against you.
To be clear, when I said:
mechanical playskill > mental hygeine > decklist > inducing your opponent to make mistakes > information management
I didn't mean that information management is irrelevant ... I just meant for most players, there are so many more important things to worry about that concentrating on hiding your deck is a wasted opportunity cost.
Can you get a few % points by an opponent misplaying because they think you're on a different deck? Sure. But all of those %'s go away if your opponent scouted the room. They go away in the top 8 when everyone knows SOMEBODY who has played against you in the swiss. They go away when your opponent isn't a regular and can't guess what you're on even if you always play the same deck. Most importantly, they go away in game 2, which is > 50% of the games you're going to play.
Nobody here is making so few mistakes that they'd get more mileage out of that .05% bump in 10% of games, rather than just playing the deck you don't make game-ending mistakes with. For certain, I don't come close to playing that well. I'm not the best player in this thread, but nobody here is playing at a zero-mistake level.
Does this mean you should never switch decks? Not at all. But there are other more important factors. Playing a matchup from the other side of the table can give you real insights on how to win, and if you're similarly strong with two decks, it can be correct to play something different as the metagame changes. I just don't think surprise value has a lot of weight here.
If you run into a situation where getting an information advantage is free? Awesome, go for it. ... but don't sacrifice something more important to get it ... and almost everything in magic, (like avoiding play mistakes or adapting to the local metage) is more important. Don't pitch your Ancestral to counter their Preordain.
@aelien "immune" was perhaps not the right word, but "far-less-impacted" is more apt. As I said, knowledge of the opposing deck in shops vs blue is really minimal advantage. This is very different from knowing the way to beat PO storm or dredge. Again, I'm saying knowledge is most valuable against decks that hinge primarily on one mechanic that you have the maindeck answers to stop. Why do people keep using shops vs blue as an example when I've addressed the minimal impact of knowledge in this matchup many times???
Also, knowing your opponent is on shops with the hand you suggested - they have to have one of chalice, one of thorn, or a sphere in hand. That's 6 cards in a deck of 60. Even if they toss out a golem, you still play 2 moxen and preordain for more mana (or draw land as well on your draw). If you mull that away because you know they are on shops, you basically give them a sphere in hand, assume that's their turn 1 play, and assume you won't draw land. That hand, if they DON'T have sphere/chalice basically wins the matchup. You are going to throw away a good hand of 7 for an unknown hand of 6 by assuming they have the sphere in hand and want to play it? (If they have only tomb/sphere or land/mox/sphere and spells costing 2 or more, they likely won't want to lead with sphere due to locking themselves out.) You basically give them the hand you fear, just by fearing it - and can mull into much worse hands.
@thewhitedragon69 That hand as described, would be crappy to keep. If they have a taxing effect you have lost immediately, thats a chance you should not take, especially because the hand isn't even good against them if they don't have a taxing effect since you are already on 5 cards (Flusterstorm and MM are dead cards). Mulligan to 6 to find a FoW and a more stable mana source like a fetch land is great.
The reason why i brought up Shops vs. Blue is especially because of the reason that you pretend that its "minimal impact of knowledge" in this match up, which just isn't true.
If i enter a tournament with a blue deck and i could choose for which match up i always get to know what my opponent is on, Shops would definitely be in high consideration.
@aelien I guess you have a point there, but I'd still have to say the knowledge of shops when you are on blue is less than knowing you are against dredge or storm if you are running wastes/rods. Sure, you can mull into a hopefully better hand against shops, but you still have to play the game and try to win. If you are against dredge or storm g1 and have the answers for their deck in your main (say sorcerous spyglass vs dredge), you probably just win on the back of one card. The knowledge in that case turns an almost definite loss into a probable win. Mulling anything in blue against shops just means you MAY have a better chance not to get blown out immediately and a chance to win if the match plays out well for you. That's less impact to me.
I came in 20th at SCG Con. So, thanks for all of the advice and tolerating my belly aching over MTGO. I cannot make it to Champs this year because I am welcoming my 3rd child into the world.
I hope to make it to another large event because I played day one on 2hrs of sleep and I made play mistakes on day two that cost me top 8 so I know I can do better.
Thanks to everyone in the community for their advice. It helped!!!