@neo_altoid , what has been your sb plan vs. outcome?
I board in 2x Null Rod (want to have something which is easier to cast on turn 1!), 1x Sylvan Library, and 1x Flusterstorm. I board out 1x Basking rootwalla, 1x Vengevine, and 2x Survival of the Fittest. I could be convinced to play a 2nd copy of Flusterstorm, but the tenor of the matchup seems unlikely to change.
Energy flux is kinda lights out for shops (T1 it's unbeatable, but after that they can beat it, but it's pretty hard). But the thing is... it's hard to cast. When they have good hands, you will not be able to cast energy flux. And you don't need to obliterate your opponent with artifact hate that comes down only on a handful of games. You need to give yourself a shot at having time to combo at their face. And grudge does that.
Against PO I have MD null rod, 3 ancient grudge, 3 thalia, chalice of the void and a lot of speed (a lot of times they don't keep hands that can race you), and from the SB 1 null rod, 2 energy flux, 3 pyroblast and 2 nature's claim. And I really don't feel like the matchup is that impossible, it's not pretty good, but I think it's something closer to 50 than to 20. I'd say it's about 40-50%.
Essentially, I don't think you're changing the matchup, and you're adding a 4th color. The mana in the deck for non-green cards is already not great. You're still losing to exactly the same strategies, and while Pyroblast is tactically a little better, practically it's the same card--unless you're countering a Tinker after they've deployed a lot of mana, it's gonna be the same. (for reference--I've tried the grudge+Pyroblast version. It's still the same issues).
I actually think the matchup isn't unwinnable (it's not good, but it's acceptably bad matchup) if they don't have Tinker+Blightsteel in their deck, since your disruption tends to be more meaningful, as they can't DT their way out of trouble as easily. You're largely cold to fast Blightsteel, and Swords/Path are too conditional to board in for exactly that matchup.
Really, if you want to get to the core of it, it's that to beat Outcome consistently, you either need to have a real wall of disruption which they can't realistically break through (Jeskai), or the ability to clock and disrupt at the same time (Shops, since Mishra's Workshop/Foundry Inspector aren't remotely fair cards). Survival can do this, but you need a pretty good hand to actually both fire Hollow One/Vengevine, and put Null Rod/Thalia in play before you lose. That, I think is a function of the deck's basic functioning, rather than any particular tactical answer.
i generally agree with your sentiment, but I do think in theory the red splash for grudge and REB is better than playing energy flux.
Flux is obviously amazing against shops, but grudge is also very strong there while being easier to cast and synergistic with your overall game plan. getting to three mana can be tough, while having a density of 1 or 2 mana spot removal keeps you from falling behind. moreover, with a bunch of grudges in the main deck as well as your beefy creatures I don't see the need for a ton of shops-specific SB cards. Versatile answers like natures claim and plow are good enough to have that be a positive matchup.
Which brings me to my second thought: i don't think energy flux is great against PO. It comes down much slower than other hate (while still being answered by force of will for a huge tempo loss) and also does not stop their game plan if they haven't deployed their artifacts or if they have an outcome to fire off in response to the taxes. Grudge can at least trade 2 for 1 and slow them down, stunting development while you hopefully beat face. REB is really good in control matchups and can be a good hard counter for their business. I've been a little unimpressed with these in the PO matchup specifically, so i'm wondering if something like mindbreak trap would be more worthwhile.
Essentially, I don't think you're changing the matchup, and you're adding a 4th color. The mana in the deck for non-green cards is already not great.
I remain skeptical of people who say the mana doesn't support Taiga. Who plays Wasteland besides Shops? If more Wasteland decks pop up then maybe it's time to move off a 4c version but that doesn't seem to be happening right now.
You're still losing to exactly the same strategies, and while Pyroblast is tactically a little better, practically it's the same card
I fundamentally disagree with this point. Tactically, Flusterstorm rarely counter Paradoxical Outcome, Pyroblast often does. If you counter an Outcome you tend to win those games. Yes, Flusterstorm can help you resolve a Stony Silence more often than Pyroblast, but how much more often? They only have 4 FoW and they have to have it when we cast Stony, and we have to have our 1 or 2 of counterspell and a mana up to hit the FoW. Obviously Flusterstorm is better if they have 2 FoW, but it is enough worse against the first Paradoxical/Tinker that wouldn't you rather have it? All this forgetting of course that Pyroblast is quite good against JtMS and Dack Fayden.
You're largely cold to fast Blightsteel
This isn't really true. It is certainly difficult to beat, but you can present enough blocks to chump it once or twice and still kill them if they don't do something else (like Time Walk). I lose way more games to Vault/Key or Tendrils than to Tinker/Robot.
Really, if you want to get to the core of it, it's that to beat Outcome consistently, you either need to have a real wall of disruption which they can't realistically break through (Jeskai), or the ability to clock and disrupt at the same time (Shops, since Mishra's Workshop/Foundry Inspector aren't remotely fair cards).
Are you sure Shops is good against Outcome? The people I know who play Shops regularly are convinced that match-up is abysmal. Jeskai appears to be the best at beating PO. I think my current plan of Red destruction (Grudge/Chewer/Cratermaker) + Pyroblast + Disruption (Thalia, Stony, Chalice, Thorn) is arguably better than what Shops does.
don't think energy flux is great against PO
I stopped bringing it in against them after the first game I landed it. They just waited an extra turn and deployed all their stuff, then cast PO twice, and then won. I realized quickly it doesn't actually hurt them.
Grudge can at least trade 2 for 1 and slow them down, stunting development while you hopefully beat face.
It's not even 2-1 tbh. It can often be both a Time Walk and a Hymn while being a Stone Rain. That's like 6-1, right? Outcome is so dependent on chaining together lots of spells and drawing lots of cards (duh) that knocking out 1/2 pieces of mana with Grudge is functionally better than Stony Silence. I think the plan of Thorn/Thalia/Chalice/Stony backed up by Grudge and Pyroblast is exactly where you want to be.
The deck is feeling pretty good. I started playing today and got 5-0, then got excited and played another league and... another 5-0!
2x Jeskai mentor
2x Show and Tell/Oath
1x blue belcher
1x monored moon (BM+magus)
Maindeck is feeling great, I lost only twice the first game, grudge is being awesome (being able to discard and costing 1 less is kinda 2 less cards to make it work when bazaaring, comparing to null rod). Pyroblast is also great, as people usually don't expect it and you use a 1 mana spell to protect a 2 mana spell or to stop your opponent to go off.
TL;DR: the red splash is really the way to go.
tried a wacky BUG build this afternoon for a 4-1 finish. Beat three control decks (BUGr, RUG pyromancer, UWR) and storm, lost to PO (explosive mentor game 1, library of alexandria game 2 when i tried to go grindy.)
misstep felt really good, disrupting cantrips while ahead on board, fighting drs on the stack (big game!), or trying to slow down dark rituals. Force was strong as well and even lucked out and cycled a hollow one into it to counter necro. The blue count is maybe juuuust a little low, but i don't know what you could trim. Probe seems like an easy addition and something like deep analysis could help go grindier. I'd also like room for more squee, spirit guide, null rod - but what can ya do?
amalgam just seems clunky, especially if you start to fill the rest of the deck up with cards like gravecrawler. Honestly, i got up to 17 blue cards maindeck, which is low but close to acceptable. The problem is when boarding against shops you want to have force available, but misstep is not a card, so you end up around 14ish blue cards depending how you board.. Maybe that's sometime you just have to live with, especially if shops is on the downswing.
Finished another league: 5-0 (nearly the clean sweep! Lost just a single game to shops.) Matches against 2xShops, Oath, 2xPO. Turns out blue cards are good, the survival package is good, so whichever half of the deck you draw you're probably doing something powerful.
@wfain ate a red blast, looted a few times, slammed the door against shops where i set up flashback time walk into flash back ancestral (but that game was mostly won with an early null rod and hollow one, and by the time jace was doing anything trygon had showed up as well). he has also been pitched to survival and possibly force, so overall pretty fine!