@Mike-Noble I eventually ended up cutting the cabal therapy from my side because they didn't have as much impact as I'd hoped. I really liked the idea when I was originally making the deck, did they perform well in your games? I may have just cut them too early and with too few games of experience.
Following @Mike-Noble 's lead, blue was removed entirely.
This frees up a lot of potential design space.
Could we use cards like tomik, elvish reclaimer, and knight of the reliquary to tutor land cards as well as protect filth and lands in that case?
Basically develop an abzan toolbox that also tutors for specialty lands (karakas, bojuka bog, urborg) via 'crop rotation' effects.
You could also utilize Anafenza in the mirror as well to prevent opposing Hogaak/VV/Bloodghast cards as well.
Please take all of this with a many grains of salt as I am very new to Vintage and a terrible Magic player in general.
Given the current high-speed meta (I was informed that MysticForge.dec and Dredge were the current boogeymen of the format), I intend to play Survival as hatebears + 2 turn clock. Here's the list as of its last iteration:
4 Hollow One
2 Collector Ouphe
2 Lavinia, Azorious Renegade
1 Containment Priest
1 Deputy of Detention
1 Time Walk
1 Ancestral Recall
4 Mental Misstep
2 Force of Vigor
6 green fetches
2 Force of Vigor
2 Collector Ouphe
1 Yxlid Jailer
2 Containment Priest
1 Lavinia, Azorious Renegade
1 Deputy of Detention
2 Thalia, Guardian of Thraben
2 Dark Confidant
1 Mindbreak Trap
I've gotten some good advice and I feel like this list is fairly strong. I do have some slots that I question and I'd like some input on them.
First is Mox Ruby. I would rather this be a Noble Hierarch. I was informed that I NEED to ensure I have a strong play turn 1 and a mana dork (not including DRS as we all know that's just a 1-mana planeswalker) does not fit the bill. I think Elvish Spirit Guide is a strong alternative, but I don't know how ESG's yummy green mana compares to Mox Ruby's re-usability. Thoughts? Other alternatives?
Second, Force of Vigor. I have 2 maindeck but was advised to fit 3 (with the 4th in the SB). Is that worthwhile? If so, what would you cut to fit the 3rd?
Third, Lavinia. I love this card in this format (but with my limited experience, that doesn't mean much). I'd like 3 maindeck. Is that too greedy? My gut says "yes", but her power level says "doesn't matter, do it anyways".
SB Squee: When do I board this in? I can only forsee a need for real card advantage against BUG Control, who is probably going to exile my Squee anyways. Is this better off as another Dark Confidant?
SB Thalia: Is 2 sufficient? Despite having significant impact against many decks, she's a non-bo with Lavinia (who has MORE impact), so I'm waffling on this one. Maybe 2 is the perfect amount, for all I know.
SB Dark Confidant: Too risky in a deck of 4 and 5 drops?
SB Mindbreak Trap: Really a flex slot and an homage to the Vintage boogeyman of bygone eras. Still worthwhile? Better used differently?
Generic feedback is also welcome.
Mike is pretty much right in his post.
A couple additional thoughts: Thalia seems unimportant. I wouldn’t worry about it. Maybe another Deputy and a Trophy instead? In my opinion, your SB should try to win Dredge matches (~6-8 cards), finish off ForgeShops (~3-4), and give you either anti-hate cards or an alternate plan of attack against BUG with the remaining slots.
Thank you for the feedback!
Cutting the Mox Ruby for the green fetchland sounds great.
The SB Squee and SB Confidants were attempts at gaining some card advantage. I'm open to cutting them, but I think some recuperation/refill from Bazaars is still worthwhile. Also, card advantage seems worthwhile vs BUG. Do you have any recommendations on replacement cards? I have seen Deep Analysis in some lists...
I suppose Assassin's Trophy is indeed necessary since Deputy can't hit Tabernacle.
Thalia seems unimportant, don't worry about it? I'm afraid I don't follow. In addition to the problematic overlap with Lavinia (which makes for points AGAINST playing Thalia in the 75), Thalia is strong against blue decks where Lavinia is weak (points FOR Thalia). I heard Survival has a good matchup against BUG, is it intrinsically strong against most blue shells? If that's the case I could easily cut Thalia.
Thalía is only better than Lavinia against Xerox. That’s already a good matchup (most of the time). BUG is probably the most challenging because of DRS and Narset/Leo. Thalía isn’t very valuable there. That’s why I say don’t worry about playing it. I don’t think it is helping any relevant matchups.
@Mike-Noble: I don't plan on playing Hogaak. I'd bet I'm wrong and that Gaak is optimal, but I can't help but feel that Survival doesn't need more clock. So I'm attempting to hate and interact and such.
@wfain: You brought up EXACTLY the issues I was pondering. That's why Squee and Dark Confidant were the card advantage sources of choice.
@Mike-Noble: what's DPS?
Anyways, turnout was pretty low, but it could have been worse.
I went 1-1-1 to make T4. Lost Round 1 to Dredge (excellent pilot), drew round 2 against an excruciatingly slow Jedi Knights pilot, and crushed PO round 3. Lost in T4 to the same dredge guy. Damn that deck is intense.
I didn't get to do much by way of Bazaar or Survival shenanigans, which was unfortunate.
If super fast combo decks are now less likely (with the exception of Dredge), maybe I should cut white for a more stable and consistent plan. Maybe go to 3 or 4 Leovold in the 75 instead. And play some Ravenous Traps!