Brian Kelly is actually responsible for the Unrestriction of Mishra's Workshop



  • As often seems to be the case in a restricted list discussion, people start talking past each other and defining things ever so differently as to make their argument. I'll try to clarify since it seems what I'm saying is being lost.

    My "justified reasoning for restricting dredge cards" was a separate point to yours, Brian. I am a numbers guy, and if the numbers aren't absurd for something I don't see the justification to restrict something. If you want to explain why the numbers are wrong that is another argument that I would listen to. Soly seemed to be responding to my comments in terms of the numbers, and I don't think that what he presented refutes anything that I was saying and certainly doesn't make my initially factual statements about the numbers false.

    As to the elusive, mythical "6 sideboard slots", I specifically mentioned "exclusive" Dredge hate because that is what these cards would have to be for them to be "opened up" by Dredge being restricted. This does not cards include cards like Oath, Sorceress' spyglass, Wasteland, ect. that I'm fairly sure are being played for other matchups rather than just Dredge. I mean I'm almost 100% certain that restricting Dredge won't suddenly make you stop playing Oath of Druids in an Oath of Druids deck.

    You playing 1 Dredge hate card in your main deck, and winning is great news! I have to admit that I was unaware of these results as I've been playing Dredge and I have not seen a blue player play a game 1 hate piece on me. It also means Dredge isn't that hard to combat. I'm not sure how this is any different from the anti-Workshops strategy 10 years ago of playing 1 main deck Hurkyl's to sure up a match up.

    Is Survival even a GY strategy?

    Perhaps not, but I tried to be clear in stating that I felt it was a GY strategy in my point.



  • @vaughnbros said in Brian Kelly is actually responsible for the Unrestriction of Mishra's Workshop:

    Perhaps not, but I tried to be clear in stating that I felt it was a GY strategy in my point.

    Right, I get that. What I'm asking is if the point you used it for is invalid? Namely that dredge doesn't shut out other GY strategies. If what you mean by GY decks is one that use 4 Bazaar, then I agree, if you mean decks that are literally reliant on their GY to win and really have some back-up plan or lots of counter-hate cards to fight through GY hate then I disagree. In that case, I think dredge does eliminate other GY decks by virtue of its undeniable efficiency. Is that a point in favor of restricting something? IDK.



  • @wfain

    Yes, what I meant by GY strategy is one that uses Bazaar and gains significant benefit from its GY. In Survival's case that is recurring a bunch of Vengevines on extremely value. If you want to view the point as irrelevant that is up to you, but I literally defined the decks I was talking about in my comment. I'm not sure how much more explicit I should be.



  • @vaughnbros
    I wasn’t sure how you were defining it, or if it was being defined consistently across usage in the thread. Just trying to clarify what is actually being said by everyone.
    By my definition a GY deck is one that can’t reasonably be expected to ignore multiple GY hate cards without dedicating itself to either removing them, or transforming to ignore them. I would not put Survival in that category. It extracts value from the GY, and its most degenerate opens utilize the GY, but you don’t have to ever deal with a RiP, Cage, or Priest and you don’t actually have to SB around them (other than maybe Squee and Wonder). That’s not true of dredge, and wouldn’t be true of any reanimator decks either. I suppose my definition is rather narrow though.

    Dredge doesn’t eliminate other Bazaar decks, I can agree to that.



  • @wfain said in Brian Kelly is actually responsible for the Unrestriction of Mishra's Workshop:

    Is Survival even a GY strategy? I'd say no, it has ~6 cards that want to end up in the GY, and of those 4 are reasonable cards to cast and attack with on there own.

    Yes, it is. A deck running 4 Bazaar, x Squees, Wonder/Anger, 4 Vengevines, and 4 Survival foremost as means dumping Vengevines into the yard is definitely a graveyard deck. Hollow One is also a red flag; it's a big sideswipe most commonly seen in decks that are using discard outlets to fuel the graveyard.

    If my Jeskai opponent plays a Priest on t1 and an RiP on t2 I still win a great deal of those games by just playing lots of solid creatures and attacking. Dredge or some other dedicated GY deck couldn't do that.

    Survival sacrifices some of Dredge's more consistent explosiveness for flexibility and another strong axis of hate bears. Dredge can definitely humiliate Containment Priests post-sb, though indeed if the stars align correctly, the Priest player has a Mox and/or has won the die roll and it doesn't get Forced, maindeck Dredge isn't usually equipped to address hate.

    @vaughnbros said in Brian Kelly is actually responsible for the Unrestriction of Mishra's Workshop:

    My "justified reasoning for restricting dredge cards" was a separate point to yours, Brian. I am a numbers guy, and if the numbers aren't absurd for something I don't see the justification to restrict something. If you want to explain why the numbers are wrong that is another argument that I would listen to.

    I wrote above that I don't subscribe the strictly mathematical view for a host of reasons that I said I would elaborate on in a future piece, probably posted here on the Mana Drain. I heard your view very clearly; I just don't adhere to it.

    @vaughnbros said in Brian Kelly is actually responsible for the Unrestriction of Mishra's Workshop:

    This does not cards include cards like Oath, Sorceress' spyglass, Wasteland, ect. that I'm fairly sure are being played for other matchups rather than just Dredge.

    Spyglass is almost exclusively for Dredge. Saying that it may marginal utility in other matches is like saying Containment Priest isn't Dredge hate cause it can attack a Jace.



  • @wfain

    Yes that does seem rather narrow. I've played Dredge variants that have fully transformed and did not use their graveyard at all post board. It was still a Dredge / GY deck. The same was true of Dragon Reanimator that transformed into Tezzeret.

    @brianpk80

    Brian, let me shift the debate a bit here and focus on the "6 sideboard cards" portion of the argument. If say tomorrow Wizards comes out and restricts: Stinkweed Imp, Golgari-Grave Troll and Serum Power (all fairly exclusive cards to dredge) would you stop playing 4 Tormod's Crypts + 2 Spyglass in your Oath sideboard altogether? Would you stop playing Containment Priest and/or Grafdigger's Cages in your non-Oath decks? If so, what would you replace these cards with and how would they help you to combat the growing problem of Ballista Shops and Outcome storm?



  • @vaughnbros said in Brian Kelly is actually responsible for the Unrestriction of Mishra's Workshop:

    @brianpk80

    Brian, let me shift the debate a bit here and focus on the "6 sideboard cards" portion of the argument. If say tomorrow Wizards comes out and restricts: Stinkweed Imp, Golgari-Grave Troll and Serum Power (all fairly exclusive cards to dredge) would you stop playing 4 Tormod's Crypts + 2 Spyglass in your Oath sideboard altogether? Would you stop playing Containment Priest and/or Grafdigger's Cages in your non-Oath decks? If so, what would you replace these cards with and how would they help you to combat the growing problem of Ballista Shops and Outcome storm?

    Like I said above, I'm not advocating toning Dredge down because I need help not losing to other decks. I'm opposed to the fact that it's run amok without intervention for far too long now and creates near universal misery in a format people play for fun.


  • TMD Supporter

    I was about to wade into this debate and take umbrage with one of the most egregious claims in this entire thread. But before one argues with the great @brianpk80, it's a smart idea to do some research first. Ray of Light was released in March of 1998, so it slips outside the 20yr mark. 🙂

    @brianpk80

    One thing we can all agree one I'm sure is that Madonna's career has taken a terrible nose-dive in the past 20 years, due to terrible songwriting decisions. I hope that engenders solidarity.

    Carry on.



  • @brianpk80

    One thing we can all agree one I'm sure is that Madonna's career has taken a terrible nose-dive in the past 20 years, due to terrible songwriting decisions. I hope that engenders solidarity.

    Brian Kelly: Engendering solidarity since 1998.... LOL



  • @brianpk80 said in Brian Kelly is actually responsible for the Unrestriction of Mishra's Workshop:

    One thing we can all agree one I'm sure is that Madonna's career has taken a terrible nose-dive in the past 20 years, due to terrible songwriting decisions. I hope that engenders solidarity.

    You know, I didn't really think it had been 20 years. But yeah, it's 20 years.



  • @brianpk80 said in Brian Kelly is actually responsible for the Unrestriction of Mishra's Workshop:

    Madonna..... terrible nose-dive

    And holy fuck is that a BIG nose to dive.



  • @joshuabrooks said in Brian Kelly is actually responsible for the Unrestriction of Mishra's Workshop:

    I was about to wade into this debate and take umbrage with one of the most egregious claims in this entire thread. But before one argues with the great @brianpk80, it's a smart idea to do some research first. Ray of Light was released in March of 1998, so it slips outside the 20yr mark. 🙂

    @brianpk80

    One thing we can all agree one I'm sure is that Madonna's career has taken a terrible nose-dive in the past 20 years, due to terrible songwriting decisions. I hope that engenders solidarity.

    Carry on.

    Why thank you.

    @neo_altoid said in Brian Kelly is actually responsible for the Unrestriction of Mishra's Workshop:

    You know, I didn't really think it had been 20 years. But yeah, it's 20 years.

    Indeed. And the album speaks for itself.

    0_1533733804576_Matunga2.png


  • TMD Supporter

    This thread went into the dumpster for a minute, glad to see we're still able to recover without mod interference.

    On topic, it's kind of funny thinking of @brianpk80 as the grandfather of all shops players while being known for playing oath. Very "I brought you into this world, I'll take you back out".



  • dredge is fine. if anything tormod's crypt needs to be restricted


  • TMD Supporter

    @brianpk80 said in Brian Kelly is actually responsible for the Unrestriction of Mishra's Workshop:

    @vaughnbros said in Brian Kelly is actually responsible for the Unrestriction of Mishra's Workshop:

    @brianpk80

    Brian, let me shift the debate a bit here and focus on the "6 sideboard cards" portion of the argument. If say tomorrow Wizards comes out and restricts: Stinkweed Imp, Golgari-Grave Troll and Serum Power (all fairly exclusive cards to dredge) would you stop playing 4 Tormod's Crypts + 2 Spyglass in your Oath sideboard altogether? Would you stop playing Containment Priest and/or Grafdigger's Cages in your non-Oath decks? If so, what would you replace these cards with and how would they help you to combat the growing problem of Ballista Shops and Outcome storm?

    Like I said above, I'm not advocating toning Dredge down because I need help not losing to other decks. I'm opposed to the fact that it's run amok without intervention for far too long now and creates near universal misery in a format people play for fun.

    Is there any empirical evidence to support this claim? It's hard to tell since the total numbers aren't published, but it looks like Vintage Challenge attendance is roughly in range of where it's been all year. Hard to see any drop off.

    And only 1 out of 28 Top 8 decklists from July was Dredge. It appears as though there were only 2 Dredge decks in the top 8s of the last 5 Challenges.

    The only deck that looks like it might still be too good is Shops, which was 32% of Top 8s in July. The next best performing deck was PO, which was 21%, and included both PO Control and PO TPS decks.



  • @smmenen said in Brian Kelly is actually responsible for the Unrestriction of Mishra's Workshop:

    Is there any empirical evidence to support this claim? It's hard to tell since the total numbers aren't published, but it looks like Vintage Challenge attendance is roughly in range of where it's been all year. Hard to see any drop off.

    Gurl, we've moved on. This is the thread for Madonna's post-excellence era.

    To answer your question, even though it's now off topic (lol 😉 ), yes unfortunately, there has been a consistent drop in attendance in the Northeast. The big Mox event at TDG (won by a mysterious deck called Snakestill by a guy in a tie, described as "looking like Tom Sawyer going to a job interview" [it was very very hot that day, yes, I rolled my pants up]) only attracted 31 players 😞 and TPG which supported Vintage for a decade stopped having events due to low turnout.

    We asked around to see why so many people didn't want to play anymore and the most common answer was "the metagame." Shops got the most complaints but there is malaise with Paradoxical and Dredge as well.



  • This post is deleted!


  • @Smmenen, @brianpk80

    There are two reasons for declining attendance in the northeast. First (and I think this is bigger)--the playerbase is getting meaningfully older on average. It used to be a 20s crowd, and the set of goons hasn't changed significantly. I suspect that the median age at TDG was like 32, when 5 years ago it might have been 27-29. People have more responsibilities, and it's a lot harder to justify the day out when you have other meaningful and productive things to do (which is why, I think MTGO hasn't suffered as much--MTGO is "I stayed home, and played the challenge," for example).

    Second, it is the metagame. PO, Dredge, and Shops aren't too good, but they are less interactive and lead to fewer games where you felt like your playskill mattered when playing against them (Shops is better than PO is better than Dredge along these "by feel" metrics--don't throw data at me, because it's very much not a data driven analysis). PO and Dredge, in particular, have a high fail rate/busted rate--for every 4x Mox, Outcomes, Force, Blue card, there's the game of "Lotus, 2 lands, PO, PO, Preordain" that goes nowhere fast, and the playskill involved in "Tap Bazaar, 2x Hollow One, so sorry that you kept Crypt and Rest in Peace" isn't really high (and, to wit, the other side of "I needed to normal dredge, and you kept Crypt and Rest in Peace...this was bad for me"). Your skill matters--but the shift between deck construction being the relevant skill to Vintage and play being the relevant skill has swung towards construction being more relevant of late.


  • TMD Supporter

    I agree that PO and Dredge aren't too good, but the data lend some support to the view that Shops are still too good. Shops in the January and August Vintage Challenges have the exact same Top 8 penetration at 32-33%.

    In any case, I don't believe that the 'feel' of the metagame in terms of whether a metagame feels more or less interactive really drives Vintage tournament attendance. If we could survey players in different points in time and ask two questions:

    1. Rate your level of interest in the Vintage format or enthusiasm based upon the current metagame with 1 being the least, and 10 being the most.

    2. Rate the degree of interactivity you feel exists in the current Vintage format or metagame with 1 being the least and 10 being the most.

    I would expect that there would be zero statistical significant correlation, or possibly even a weak negative correlation between those two questions. That's because I think other factors are far more important.

    Personally, I think one of the best metagames ever was the metagame where TPS was the best deck (June 2008-Sept. 2008), and not far behind that, where Grim Long/Pitch Long was. Or, another great metagame was when Necro decks were best.

    Or, conversely, some of the intensely villified Gush metagames were probably among the most interactive in the history of the format, but nonetheless hated for "pushing out" other blue strategies.

    I don't doubt that some folks are unhappy with the metagame, and may use that as a reason not to play paper magic right now, but that's a very small sample size, and there doesn't appear to be any decline in the Vintage Challenges from a longitudinal perspective that supports the view that this particular metagame (PO/Shops/etc.) is worse than any other particular one.



  • @brianpk80 that tom sawyer interview line was one of my all time bests 😉


 

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