Single Card Discussion - Lavinia, Azorious Renegade

@stormanimagus said in Single Card Discussion - Lavinia, Azorious Renegade:

Why do people continue to mention turn 1 Lavinia like that is a thing?! Are you all mental?!! You can literally only do that with turn 1 mox pearl, mox sapphire, lotus petal or black lotus. That is it. She isn't going to be entering the battlefield turn 1 that often. Jeez.

That sounds like it’s a thing.

Isn't @CHA1N5 gonna build a Lavinia + Spell Queller deck? Come on, man.

@baishuu off of 4 specific cards (one of which most decks don't run in Lotus Petal)? That is most decidedly NOT a thing if you are a deck designer at all. That is an "oops I have it" kind of thing, not a "I can reliably do this" kind of thing. People were comparing this card to Chalice @0 earlier and I'm just trying to point out that that will NOT be its function most of the time. Moxen are going to have their moment in the sun on turn 1 more than likely most of the time. Where I see this being interesting is in stopping later game topdecked moxen or tutors for Lotus being as powerful.

I do think this card will be impactful to the extent of what can I or can I not cast. Or what is countered. Online, MTGO will just counter the spells as necessary or not let you click on cards you cannot cast. But in person this is a different story. Kind of like dredge in person versus online. All the triggers stack for you online. Mistakes will be made.

Livinia is another turn one play that doesn’t allow for your opponent to go mox, orchard, Oath. Go.

@Stormanimagus

Rather than declare something “not a thing”, you could easily approximate the odds of an event occurring. Or we could have more “phyrexian mana is real mana” posts...

@chubbyrain I'm not going to crunch the numbers on it cause I don't have to. I know that having to draw a land AND a 4-of and another specific 4-of is not that likely. It will, of course, happen. Does that mean you can build your deck to EXPECT this sequencing to happen? No. You cannot. That would be irresponsible deck building. That is all I'm saying. I'm not saying it can never happen. I'm saying that the odds are not in favor of seeing turn 1 Lavinia a statistically significant portion of the time (let me be clear that "statistically significant" here means "with enough consistency to rely on it as something to expect and, thus, build around"). Do you disagree?

@ChubbyRain as a matter of general annoyance I have with your comment. I don't have to be an expert in probability or combinatorics to be able to speak intelligently to the general likelihood of a scenario playing out given a deck's design. There are some helpful "rules of thumb" when it comes to specific 2-card combos and general good practices for deck building. For example, through experience and other smarter players telling me so, I have discovered that if I want to see a certain type of effect in my opener I should likely run about 8-9 copies of that effect in my deck. If I want to see a specific card in my opener SOME of the time but not necessarily see multiples over the course of the game I generally run 3 copies of that card (obviously accounting for the fact that some decks run 3-4 preordain and other topdeck manipulation and some do not). If I want to see a specific card over the course of a longer game (or a game I expect to go long) I generally run 2 copies of that card. If I want to have a back-up copy of a card that I generally don't want to see too often I run 2 copies of that card. You can see where I'm going with this. It doesn't take an extensive knowledge of probability and combinatorics to make smart deck building decisions or to recognize smart ones from less-than-smart ones. So I could really do without the condescending comments. Really.

Currently most pilots don’t run out all moxen on turn 1 in the control matchup, unless the mana is needed immediately (to protect them from removal/dack, save them for when a storm count or mentor trigger is needed, and generally deprive the opponent of information). The credible threat of Lavinia on turn 2 will change this behavior, so that even though I agree T1 Lavinia is “not a thing” the presence of Lavinia will affect how we play with power.

@evouga oh of course. No disagreement here. And I do really like that this blanks later game moxen because that can be huge if you are getting wastelanded by all my knight of the reliquaries 🙂

Also to be fair, although T1 Oath (requiring a land, a 4-of, and a 6-of), although far from an every-match occurrence, is not all that uncommon and Oath pilots are not crazy for building the deck around that possibility.

@stormanimagus said in Single Card Discussion - Lavinia, Azorious Renegade:

@baishuu off of 4 specific cards (one of which most decks don't run in Lotus Petal)? That is most decidedly NOT a thing if you are a deck designer at all. That is an "oops I have it" kind of thing, not a "I can reliably do this" kind of thing. People were comparing this card to Chalice @0 earlier and I'm just trying to point out that that will NOT be its function most of the time. Moxen are going to have their moment in the sun on turn 1 more than likely most of the time. Where I see this being interesting is in stopping later game topdecked moxen or tutors for Lotus being as powerful.

I don't think dressing me down just because you said "a thing" to mean "a reliable thing" wins you any arguments or respect. "Do unto others", etc. You're no better than that Greg guy on the Facebook group that called everyone pathetic for not playing City in a Bottle.

Also, for the record, your example of Lavinia not being "a thing" or "a reliable thing" or a "Stormanimagus is the authority on this thing" fails to account for Time Walk (virtual turn one) and Mox Opal. Hell, Paradoxical Outcome seems perfectly built right now to make turn 1 Lavinia a "Baishuu is providing examples thing".

I’m not saying that turn 1 Lavinia will be a thing. But a card that automatically turns off 8-12 of their cards, while not affecting you, is certainly something.

@kistrand said in Single Card Discussion - Lavinia, Azorious Renegade:

So UW control with Lavinia in it seems pretty absurd. You can counter everything but opponents can't FoW or misstep back. Throw in wastelands to keep the opponent's land count down and caverns to safely land Lavinia and other humans (Snapcaster, baby Jace and finisher Mentor) and you're good to go : )

I agree. This card slots into blue white landstill very easily and is excellent in that deck making all your counterspells more difficult to counter and also hosing opposing "unfair" strategies. Isn't dredge traditionally a difficult match up for landstill in game one?

While I have concerns that xerox and paradoxical will slot her into their maindeck to consolidate the meta it seems just as likely that this card will bolster landstill against paradoxical causing a shift to a slightly more diverse meta. I'm looking forward to seeing how this plays out. Hoping for the latter option of course.

last edited by Aaron Patten

@chubbyrain Satisfying a curious itch: guess it's like 12% with 4 Lavinia, 16 lands, and 1 each: Pearl, Sapphire, Petal, and Lotus.
Assuming only 12 of those lands can actually produce U/W: 10%

Disclaimer: all real math lazily disregarded for programmatic sampling.

last edited by thelastgnu

@thelastgnu 10-15% i think, ignoring mulligans, which is about on par with having a specific restricted card in an opener. Just have my phone so can’t do the calculations.

@Stormanimagus for not being an expert, I’m amazed on the certainty of your posts. If I had just made the declaration that a poster was wrong and that “phyrexian mana is mana”, I would have had more humility in my responses to @baishuu

If the card is busted enough to merit fighting to drop it turn one, there are other normally suboptimal cards that could see play to enable it.

Mox diamond
Chrome mox
Manamorphose
Gemstone cavern

Not saying they will, just saying that you may need to broaden your horizions a bit.

I'm also starting to think that all these hatebears with abilities that already protect themselves may be well serviced by players running blossiming defense / vines of vastwood to cut off the few other avenues players have to take them off the board.

I think I did this math right?

0_1545163011868_lavinia odds 3.png

Real odds would be a little lower than this because this is assuming that you also always have an appropriate land. So if you just want to run this out incidentally and don't do anything in particular to enable it it's fairly (but not incredibly) low odds, but you can also raise it pretty significantly if you're willing to run some extra suboptimal mana sources and/or try to mull into it.

@craw_advantage

It depends on the assumptions that you are making.

Its roughly a 10% chance to open with any given card in your deck. If you have 4 fast mana sources (2 mox, 2 lotus) and 4 Lavinia, its ~15%.

@evouga This card makes me want to learn when SBAs are checked.

On another note, what deck wants this effect? Landstill? I can’t imagine even control decks caring about this more than e.g. Stony Silence for paradoxical/shops. And I think that unlike most 2-drops, this is not castable turn-1 almost ever, and that that makes it significantly worse than Chalice against moxen.

It seems to me this card is at its best against Survival when compared to other hate cards.

Something doesn't seem quite right: the probability of T1 Lavinia with S mana sources in the deck (again, assuming every hand contains at least one land) is

1 - [(# hands with no mana sources) + (#hands with no Lavinia) - (# of hands with no mana source and no Lavinia] / (total hands).

Hands with no mana sources: (60-S)c7
Hands with no Lavinia: 56c7
Hands with no Lavinia and no mana sources: (56-S)c7
Total hands: 60c7

and for S=3 I get 11.4%, not 12.6%.

@evouga Entirely possible--the odds of me doing the math wrong are higher than the odds of playing Lavinia turn one for sure. I just used Excel's HYPGEOM.DIST function and I can't see where I went wrong, but it's quite plausible that's it's somewhere.

last edited by craw_advantage
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