Single Card Discussion - Lavinia, Azorious Renegade

@thelastgnu 10-15% i think, ignoring mulligans, which is about on par with having a specific restricted card in an opener. Just have my phone so can’t do the calculations.

@Stormanimagus for not being an expert, I’m amazed on the certainty of your posts. If I had just made the declaration that a poster was wrong and that “phyrexian mana is mana”, I would have had more humility in my responses to @baishuu

If the card is busted enough to merit fighting to drop it turn one, there are other normally suboptimal cards that could see play to enable it.

Mox diamond
Chrome mox
Manamorphose
Gemstone cavern

Not saying they will, just saying that you may need to broaden your horizions a bit.

I'm also starting to think that all these hatebears with abilities that already protect themselves may be well serviced by players running blossiming defense / vines of vastwood to cut off the few other avenues players have to take them off the board.

I think I did this math right?

0_1545163011868_lavinia odds 3.png

Real odds would be a little lower than this because this is assuming that you also always have an appropriate land. So if you just want to run this out incidentally and don't do anything in particular to enable it it's fairly (but not incredibly) low odds, but you can also raise it pretty significantly if you're willing to run some extra suboptimal mana sources and/or try to mull into it.

@craw_advantage

It depends on the assumptions that you are making.

Its roughly a 10% chance to open with any given card in your deck. If you have 4 fast mana sources (2 mox, 2 lotus) and 4 Lavinia, its ~15%.

@evouga This card makes me want to learn when SBAs are checked.

On another note, what deck wants this effect? Landstill? I can’t imagine even control decks caring about this more than e.g. Stony Silence for paradoxical/shops. And I think that unlike most 2-drops, this is not castable turn-1 almost ever, and that that makes it significantly worse than Chalice against moxen.

It seems to me this card is at its best against Survival when compared to other hate cards.

Something doesn't seem quite right: the probability of T1 Lavinia with S mana sources in the deck (again, assuming every hand contains at least one land) is

1 - [(# hands with no mana sources) + (#hands with no Lavinia) - (# of hands with no mana source and no Lavinia] / (total hands).

Hands with no mana sources: (60-S)c7
Hands with no Lavinia: 56c7
Hands with no Lavinia and no mana sources: (56-S)c7
Total hands: 60c7

and for S=3 I get 11.4%, not 12.6%.

@evouga Entirely possible--the odds of me doing the math wrong are higher than the odds of playing Lavinia turn one for sure. I just used Excel's HYPGEOM.DIST function and I can't see where I went wrong, but it's quite plausible that's it's somewhere.

last edited by craw_advantage

@protoaddct said in Single Card Discussion - Lavinia, Azorious Renegade:

This think is going to exhaserbate the mental misstep problem to new level.

I am not familiar with this problem, but I’m pretty sure people were only casting Dark Ritual when they had a land in play anyway 😉

Best answers for this card are bolt, plow, fatal push, and likely abrupt decay.

Really? I would rank Pyroblast a tier above all of those personally.

last edited by Miryafa

@fsecco said in Single Card Discussion - Lavinia, Azorious Renegade:

@brass-man The thing that makes it hard to evaluate is that this card is easily maindeckable. Just like Deathrite rendered GY strategies much worse in Legacy not because it was the best hoser, but because it was a 4-of everywhere G1.
Against Shops and Xerox this is at it's worst, but even against them it has applications, specially if you land it very early. As I said before, you'll probably side them out on the draw against Shops, for example, but there are good reasons to leave them in on the play - just being able to get to your turn 2 knowing there is not going to be a Sphere or Rod in play is awesome.

I’m inexperienced building Vintage decks. Would you please explain to me how this is maindeckable? Pitchable to FoW I get. But it’s a sorcery that doesn’t appear to me to prevent any opponent from executing 90% of their gameplan.

Bob-Jace control plays Leovold, and Grixis Thieves plays Notion Thief, but this card appears nowhere near as strong as those to me. Am I wrong?

@miryafa

It's not a Sorcery, it's a Creature. 🙂

@evouga I believe this is correct, but then for the truly exact percentage you also have to factor in lands that produce W or U since that will drop it and there are simple additions, like adding 1 lotus petal, which boosts the number to 14.5%. So I think in total saying a rough 10-15% is accurate.

Its a little more complicated, but what was the probability of playing turn 1 Lodestone? Because I'm fairly certain it was roughly around the same as this at 10-15%.

You can also cast a turn one time walk via an off colored mox to get you to 2 lands.

last edited by John Cox

@john-cox fair. I would say that this guy is still marvelously insane on turn 2. Don't get me wrong everyone. I will be testing the crap out of this guy 🙂

@evouga said in Single Card Discussion - Lavinia, Azorious Renegade:

I get 11.4%, not 12.6%.

That looks to me about the same as the odds of dredge failing to find Bazaar, no?

@miryafa

Starting without Bazaar is only 4%.

@vaughnbros ty. I didn’t know the exact number til now

11.99% is the chance of having a "one of" in your opening hand (say ancestral).

last edited by John Cox

Hi 🙂
What a nice present for Xmas 🙂

@miryafa said in Single Card Discussion - Lavinia, Azorious Renegade:

@fsecco said in Single Card Discussion - Lavinia, Azorious Renegade:

@brass-man The thing that makes it hard to evaluate is that this card is easily maindeckable. Just like Deathrite rendered GY strategies much worse in Legacy not because it was the best hoser, but because it was a 4-of everywhere G1.
Against Shops and Xerox this is at it's worst, but even against them it has applications, specially if you land it very early. As I said before, you'll probably side them out on the draw against Shops, for example, but there are good reasons to leave them in on the play - just being able to get to your turn 2 knowing there is not going to be a Sphere or Rod in play is awesome.

I’m inexperienced building Vintage decks. Would you please explain to me how this is maindeckable? Pitchable to FoW I get. But it’s a sorcery that doesn’t appear to me to prevent any opponent from executing 90% of their gameplan.

Bob-Jace control plays Leovold, and Grixis Thieves plays Notion Thief, but this card appears nowhere near as strong as those to me. Am I wrong?

Leovold and Notion Thief are both way harder to cast than Lavinia though. If any of those cost only 2 colored mana, sure.

Lavinia gets in the way of a lot of stuff. Moxen, counters, PWs. It can even act as Defense Grid in a way. It's maindeckable because we're theorycrafting a 4 Lavinia deck that uses the tempo advantage she generates to win quickly or to get an unsurmountable advantage quickly.

I wonder how she fares paired up with stuff like Armageddon or Fastbond + Crucible or Balance 😛 (probably bad, but this is the fun stuff we should always try out). Also, if we ever have a Lavinia-meta, Gush can come out of the restricted list easily hahaha

last edited by fsecco
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