Single Card Discussion - Lavinia, Azorious Renegade

@thewhitedragon69 I could either respond to most of your quite nonsensical points, but i iam very lazy and at a friend's right now so please just read my big post from before.

Does anyone think the wording is weird on this card? It looks like WoTC is using the same wording for triggers as Chalice of the void. They have said several times that if they would remake chalice they would make the spells unable to be cast instead (along the lines as sanctum prelate) .
This card seems like its a judges nightmare at the next year's GPs.

@aelien said in Single Card Discussion - Lavinia, Azorious Renegade:

@thewhitedragon69 I could either respond to most of your quite nonsensical points, but i iam very lazy and at a friend's right now so please just read my big post from before.

I'd like to hear, at least, which of those points were nonsensical specifically, and why you think so. The abilities that do not shut off an opponent's ability to perform an action are rarely powerful enough to be playable.

You mention leovold's ability being strong enough, but if he didn't have the "opponents can't draw more than 1 card" ability, do you really think he'd be playable just because he lets you draw when your stuff is targeted? I highly doubt it.

This card is going to make jeskai a really good deck. The ability to run this, as well as removal, pyroblast and play a lean curve will be really good.

last edited by John Cox

@wagner said in Single Card Discussion - Lavinia, Azorious Renegade:

At a time where most sets don't even include a Vintage playable card, I'm just always excited to see a new card that could shake things up a bit, especially one that has an ability we've never seen before.

No? I haven't been actually playing Vintage for too long, but there are a ton of new cards in Vintage for sure. I saw four Guilds of Ravnica cards at Eternal Weekend for example.


I think Lavinia seems suited for a midrange deck, maybe even some greedy 4c abomination like the red Leovold decks or Sylvan Mentor. Maybe you play "mono asymmetrical hate" with Lavinia, Leovold, Notion Thief, and Kambal for some ground pounders and some restricted draw spells, Stony Silence, and counters?

I have long played red Leovold deck mixups like your standard greedy midrange/control, with and without tinker, and with the whole Grixis Thieves deck plus Leo. Thinking i'll get some white cards and try some nonsense for fun regardless of Lavinia pans out.

@guli

Bring all the small critters you want, my Punishing Fires will handle it!!!!

@chubbyrain said in Single Card Discussion - Lavinia, Azorious Renegade:

As for the other designs, wizards had tried that template with kambal, harsh mentor, and others. Obviously they are aware they can design cards this way. Why do you think they chose not to?

I think some of these cards like Kambal, mentor and activated abilities like on MoM might be played if there weren't other static ability hard hate problems. I think Wizards went the way they did because somebody in R&D declared they were going to make white powerful (not just in vintage) so they went w/ the most powerful hate mechanics they could. Sorry I can't find the thread, but there was a discussion about 2? years ago about a member of R&D stating exactly that - they wanted to beef up white.

@aeonsovarius said in Single Card Discussion - Lavinia, Azorious Renegade:

@wagner said in Single Card Discussion - Lavinia, Azorious Renegade:

At a time where most sets don't even include a Vintage playable card, I'm just always excited to see a new card that co

No? I haven't been actually playing Vintage for too long, but there are a ton of new cards in Vintage for sure. I saw four Guilds of Ravnica cards at Eternal Weekend for example.

Remember what those were? I'm guessing Assassin's Trophy, what else?

@wagner Niv Mizzet, Goblin Cratermaker and Molderhulk probably. Mission Briefing, Experimental Frenzy and Ral Zarek maybe. A lot of playables.

last edited by fsecco

@wagner I saw Niv MIzzet (and i played a lot of Niv Mizzet Oath and still do), A Trophy, Mission Briefing (which i also play), Knight of Autumn. But @fsecco just reminded me of Cratermaker so i saw 5.

And I didn't personally see Molderhulk, Frenzy, and Ral Zarek but those cards listed by fsecco also undoubtedly saw at least marginal experimental play.

@aeonsovarius said in Single Card Discussion - Lavinia, Azorious Renegade:

Knight of Autumn

Oh yeah, Survival is using that, right?

@fsecco I saw it being played in a Survival deck at EW, i haven't followed lists specifically to know how popular that is. Offhand i'm aware that Survival is a force of will/misstep deck lately.

Just noticed this is a nonbo with Thalia. Your free spells will now cost 1 and won't be countered by Lavinia.

@wagner I noticed that right when the card was spoiled. I still think you run Thalia and Lavinia in the same deck because games where you don't draw one you'll want the other for density of relevant cheap drops. The first clause on Lavinia is still in effect for force of will FYI. It only really affects moxen that your opponent may drop and those moxen can't ramp out big spells anyway.

There are a lot of comparisons to Chalice of the Void being thrown around here. Everyone seems to be taking it as a given that this is playable consistently on Turn 1.

Has anyone run the statistical analysis on this?

To cast this T1, you need an on-color Mox (2), Lotus or Petal + land + Lavinia in your opening hand. This is probably the most common set of accelerants you’ll see in a deck running Lavinia.

What is the statistical probability of this in an opener?

How far are you willing to mulligan to try to land this? 5?

How sure are you that T1 Lavinia is backbreaking enough to win the game?

Sure, Chrome or Diamond are possibilities, but these still seem a stretch. Diamond requires an additional land, so you’re still looking at a specific set of 4 cards (land, land, diamond, Lavinia) in your opening hand to cast it. Chrome is maybe more viable, but you’re going to need to run 4x Chrome to maximize this probability and that just seems bad for later in the game.

Running 4x RG Manamorphose in a deck to cast a UW spell on T1 on off color Moxen? Is this worth it?

People have mentioned being able to reliably cast this off Mox Opal on T1 in PO. What’s the probability of having Lavinia, Opal, land + 2 0cc artifacts for Metalcraft? Is this really viable?

@spacebalzz Some math was done. You can do it in most decks about 11.5% of the time.

@john-cox 11.5%? That's ALOT... that card seems even stronger now... 😄

@megustalabanana
Lotus, 2 Moxen and Petal is four secondary sources (40% chance in opener) of mana. Math that out with a 4 off card (40% of 40%) and you get about an 11% chance of it happening turn 1 if theres 4 copies in your deck.
Add in stuff like repeal and chrome or opal mox and your looking at 20ish percent.
This isn't a bad turn 2 play.
I think the home is in a mentor shell. Maybe a PO mentor deck without the PO's. Put in some extra Snapcaster/Jaces. Maybe a blue angel 2.0 deck.

last edited by John Cox
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