SMIP Podcast # 86: The 2018 Vintage Year in Review & Moxies Award Show


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    The MTG cast network is down for the time being. But our podcast episodes are still going up on Eternal central. Here is our end-of-the-year show!

    http://www.eternalcentral.com/so-many-insane-plays-podcast-episode-86-2018-year-in-review/

    Kevin Cron and Steve Menendian discuss the year that was 2018, for Vintage; its key tournaments, cards, sets, and stories. In the end, we award our annual Moxies!

    Play
    Podcast (somanyinsaneplays): Download (Duration: 1:57:22 β€” 94.2MB)

    0:01:15: Announcements
    0:02:00: Vintage Super League Season 9 Updates
    0:13:00: Sperling/Vergo Scenario Show
    0:22:30: Set Releases
    0:28:30: Major Events
    0:37:30: Metagame Shifts
    0:53:00: New Cards
    1:05:30: New Sets
    1:07:15: Best Deck
    1:09:40: Stories
    1:17:00: Moxies
    1:50:00: Looking Forward to 2019
    Total Runtime: 1:57:22
    Contact us at @ManyInsanePlays on Twitter or e-mail us at SoManyInsanePlaysPodcast@gmail.com.

    Our moxie awards this year were pretty intensely debated, but I'm really happy with the final selections πŸ™‚



  • Thanks for the yearly review as always.

    When counting top8 appearances, it's a bit of work but it would be more fair to scale the number of top8s by the number of months of the year the card was legal to play. Even better would be to scale by the number of tournaments it was legal in, but that seems like too much work.

    If you apply this scaling, assassin's trophy was just as prevalent as Teferi.


  • TMD Supporter

    So do you think I got it right? The card of the year was a tough one.



  • I think the card is a hard thing to evaluate this year and comes to personal preference and the way you want to look at it. Karn, Teferi and Trophy all seem good choices.

    I disagree with deck of the year, though. In other years you don't necessarily gave moxies to the "most successful deck". Take the eldrazi year for example. If I remember correctly Eldrazi won best deck moxies, and it wasn't the most successful that year. But it changed the metagame and the narrative of the whole year, deserving the award. I really think this year's narrative was all around PO. You later assess that we may be finally out of the Shops Era, and that was a lot on PO's back, which makes for me the deck of the year, since it really shaped how the format evolved and held Shops back a bit.

    It was a great show though, as usual. ❀


  • TMD Supporter

    Great episode. While I disagree somewhat with dismissing sideboard cards as candidates for card of the year because a key sideboard card could easily push certain archetypes into/out of the upper echelons of the format, I really like Steve's choice of Trophy for card of the year. Looking at raw numbers of top 8 appearances does a disservice to cards that came out later in the calendar year, so taking a longer-term view makes sense to me.


  • TMD Supporter

    @revengeanceful said in SMIP Podcast # 86: The 2018 Vintage Year in Review & Moxies Award Show:

    Great episode. While I disagree somewhat with dismissing sideboard cards as candidates for card of the year because a key sideboard card could easily push certain archetypes into/out of the upper echelons of the format, I really like Steve's choice of Trophy for card of the year. Looking at raw numbers of top 8 appearances does a disservice to cards that came out later in the calendar year, so taking a longer-term view makes sense to me.

    Would Fragmentize or Yixlid Jailer rate as a "card of the year"? Possibly, in some technical sense.

    But to me, "card of the year" has to have a larger role - a more strategic role, in the evolving metagame. I wouldn't give a best picture oscar based upon a 10 minute supporting actor performance. Similarly, I don't think the "card of the year" Moxie should to a 1- or 2-of sideboard card that is only used by one deck.

    To me, it was down to Niv Mizzet or Assissin's Trophy, and I think Trophy was more deserving, as I think it's the card from the year that will have the longest-term impact on the format.



  • @smmenen said in SMIP Podcast # 86: The 2018 Vintage Year in Review & Moxies Award Show:

    I wouldn't give a best picture oscar based upon a 10 minute supporting actor performance.

    *laughs in Hannibal Lecter*

    I would consider a sideboard card for card of the year if it changed things significantly enough. That said, I haven't listened to the show yet so we'll see if I change my mind.



  • @fsecco said in SMIP Podcast # 86: The 2018 Vintage Year in Review & Moxies Award Show:

    I disagree with deck of the year, though. In other years you don't necessarily gave moxies to the "most successful deck". Take the eldrazi year for example. If I remember correctly Eldrazi won best deck moxies, and it wasn't the most successful that year. But it changed the metagame and the narrative of the whole year, deserving the award. I really think this year's narrative was all around PO. You later assess that we may be finally out of the Shops Era, and that was a lot on PO's back, which makes for me the deck of the year, since it really shaped how the format evolved and held Shops back a bit.

    Exactly. This year, PO broke Shops's stranglehold on the format. And anecdotally, it was the deck everyone spent all year talking about, preparing for, asking for restrictions of, etc etc. When I think "Vintage 2018," I think PO.

    Great show though!



  • @stuart PO is the deck of the year and even though Karn was a sideboard role player he is super important to the format. I can see Karn holding his own type of deck in the future. People need time to figure this stuff out and the format does not offer a lot of incentive to do so unless you are a glutton for punishment.


  • TMD Supporter

    Well, the criteria I used was a bit more technical.

    Workshops won 14 of the 52 Vintage Challenges in 2018, almost double the amount PO won (9).

    Workshops also won 1 of the 5 marque events of the year (the SCG P9 series), while PO won the largest and the smallest (The NA Vintage Championship and the Waterbury). But Workshops got 2nd place in the NA Vintage Championship.

    Workshops averaged 23.3% of Vintage Challenge Top 8s during 2018. It's lowest month was May at 13% of Top 8s, and it's highest was April at 34%.

    PO on the other hand averaged 19.7% of Vintage Challenge Top 8s in 2018. It's lowest month was April at 6% of Top 8s, and it's highest was December at 35%.

    If you want to actually compare the results, here they are:

    January: 28% Shops 22% PO
    February: 16% 28%
    March: 33% 13%
    April: 34% 6%
    May: 13% 16%
    June: 15% 18%
    July: 28% 19%
    Aug: 28% 13%
    Sept: 30% 25%
    Oct: 16% 19%
    Nov: 16% 22%
    Dec: 23% 35%

    So, PO had ever so slightly higher "highs," but had much lower "lows" and was overall, won many fewer tournaments, and was significantly lower % of overall Top 8s.

    That's why, holistically speaking, I think Shops were still the deck of the year, in terms of "best deck."



  • @smmenen I understand that you approached this by the numbers but Paradoxical Outcome was printed late 2016. The fact that an entire deck exists around it and it is competing with one of the best deck of all time should be part of your consideration.

    Shops in it's current form is newer, I get that but the style and guts of the deck go back to 2003. You could technically argue that Paradoxical is a new breed of Academy deck or a revamped Prosperity deck but all in all it is a net new deck that has come together over the course of 2018.



  • @smmenen I know Shops is the best deck if you count by results. My point is I don't think this criteria should be the most important for the moxies, as it wasn't when Eldrazi won Moxies for best deck. For me the "deck of the year" is more a "deck that impacted deckbuilding and the meta that year" or even "new player in the format" like Survival was. But I know those are just different ways of looking at it.


  • TMD Supporter

    @moorebrother1 said in SMIP Podcast # 86: The 2018 Vintage Year in Review & Moxies Award Show:

    @smmenen I understand that you approached this by the numbers but Paradoxical Outcome was printed late 2016. The fact that an entire deck exists around it and it is competing with one of the best deck of all time should be part of your consideration.

    I don't really understand your point here. Why should the fact that PO was printed in 2016 have anything to do with it?

    Shops in it's current form is newer, I get that but the style and guts of the deck go back to 2003. You could technically argue that Paradoxical is a new breed of Academy deck or a revamped Prosperity deck but all in all it is a net new deck that has come together over the course of 2018.

    Actually, the PO deck, by design, looks very similar to the Turbo Tezzeret decks circa 2011: https://mtgdecks.net/Vintage/turbo-tezz-decklist-by-john-jones-10939

    In fact, they are structurally almost identical, except for changes in the card pool. The main difference is that they run PO instead of 4 Tezzeret, and used more Grim Monolith and slightly less Mox Opal, since Chalice of the Void was unrestricted at the time.

    Here is a result: http://www.archive.themanadrain.com/index.php?topic=41958.0

    @fsecco said in SMIP Podcast # 86: The 2018 Vintage Year in Review & Moxies Award Show:

    @smmenen I know Shops is the best deck if you count by results. My point is I don't think this criteria should be the most important for the moxies, as it wasn't when Eldrazi won Moxies for best deck. For me the "deck of the year" is more a "deck that impacted deckbuilding and the meta that year" or even "new player in the format" like Survival was. But I know those are just different ways of looking at it.

    I understand these things are inherently ambiguous or debating, like MVP voting in any major sport.

    I'm just trying to explain, in more detail, why I said that Shops was the best deck of 2018, IMO.

    If the empirical results were closer, I might have voted for PO, based upon narrative. I certainly agree that Survival was the 'new' deck of the year. But we had a separate category for that.



  • @smmenen
    I think people don't like to acknowledge shops. If they did they would probably play it and be less biased against the archetype.


  • TMD Supporter

    @john-cox said in SMIP Podcast # 86: The 2018 Vintage Year in Review & Moxies Award Show:

    @smmenen
    I think people don't like to acknowledge shops. If they did they would probably play it and be less biased against the archetype.

    True.

    I also think that it's also about salience. When PO wins a tournament, it's a more salient and prominent accomplishment. When Shops wins a tournament, I suppose that is "as expected," and fades into the background, narratively speaking.

    I try to keep myself honest when evaluating what is actually the 'best deck,' by hewing to the facts. True, those facts can be arranged in different configurations depending on criteria, but I think a holistic POV shows that Shops, not PO, was really the best deck of 2018.



  • @smmenen I did not do a very good job making a point there. I was trying to say that the deck really developed into it's own this year. Your point that there were highs and lows is very valid but for a deck like PO winning EW is it's pinnacle. If the deck would ever be a deck of the year it would be this year.

    The decklist that you provided is more of a precursor for Thieves not PO, but I do not want to get into deck discussion.

    Looking at old blue based combo decks you get more into Academy and Prosperity over some that runs 8 to 10 counters like Tezzeret or Gifts Ungiven decks if you want to compare how the decks play and how they win.


  • TMD Supporter

    @moorebrother1 said in SMIP Podcast # 86: The 2018 Vintage Year in Review & Moxies Award Show:

    @smmenen I did not do a very good job making a point there. I was trying to say that the deck really developed into it's own this year. Your point that there were highs and lows is very valid but for a deck like PO winning EW is it's pinnacle. If the deck would ever be a deck of the year it would be this year.

    The decklist that you provided is more of a precursor for Thieves not PO, but I do not want to get into deck discussion.

    Turbo Tezzeret ran 2-4 Opals, 2-3 Sensei's Tops, and 0-4 Grim Monoliths. That's almost exactly the configuration for PO decks. I don't see how you think Turbo Tez is a precursor for Thieves, and not PO. The only real functional difference between PO and Turbo Tez is 4 PO instead of 3-4 Tez.

    As for Grixis Thieves, Marc Lanigra's Grixis deck from the 2012 Championship is much more of a genealogical ancestor to Grixis Thieves.



  • @smmenen said in SMIP Podcast # 86: The 2018 Vintage Year in Review & Moxies Award Show:

    Turbo Tezzeret ran 2-4 Opals, 2-3 Sensei's Tops, and 0-4 Grim Monoliths. That's almost exactly the configuration for PO decks. I don't see how you think Turbo Tez is a precursor for Thieves, and not PO. The only real functional difference between PO and Turbo Tez is 4 PO instead of 3-4 Tez.

    I was trying to let this go but this bugs me a bit. PO decks look very similar to Xerox decks with the exception of less counter magic plus Mox Opal and PO.

    The Tezzeret decks were really just mana drain decks that played the same strategy we see in Grixis just without the Red.


  • TMD Supporter

    @moorebrother1 said in SMIP Podcast # 86: The 2018 Vintage Year in Review & Moxies Award Show:

    @smmenen said in SMIP Podcast # 86: The 2018 Vintage Year in Review & Moxies Award Show:

    Turbo Tezzeret ran 2-4 Opals, 2-3 Sensei's Tops, and 0-4 Grim Monoliths. That's almost exactly the configuration for PO decks. I don't see how you think Turbo Tez is a precursor for Thieves, and not PO. The only real functional difference between PO and Turbo Tez is 4 PO instead of 3-4 Tez.

    I was trying to let this go but this bugs me a bit. PO decks look very similar to Xerox decks with the exception of less counter magic plus Mox Opal and PO.

    The Tezzeret decks were really just mana drain decks that played the same strategy we see in Grixis just without the Red.

    Xerox decks run 18-22 mana sources. Big blue mana drain type decks like Slaver, Gifts, Tez, and PO run 24-28.

    Xerox decks run tempo finishers like Mentor, Pyromancer, Dryad, and Delver. Historically they run 4-8 such creatures. Big blue decks, and contrast run 1-3 late game win conditions, like Serra Angel, Morphling, Tezzeret, Tog, Tinker Bots, etc.

    PO is not - and has never been - a Xerox deck. Just because it uses preordain does not make it a xerox deck any more than when DPS does.

    If you line up the TurboTez deck it’s almost identical in form and function to PO decks.

    Grixis thieves is just the latest version of the Bob /Jace big blue deck, which came into existence when thirst was restricted, The Tez players replaced thirst with dark confidant.


 

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