After I broke out the 12 Force Dredge a few weeks ago, I really don't understand how this hasn't caught on more.
Finished 2nd in the Vintage Format Playoff tournament today on MTGO with this monster.
The tournament is full of ringers, since to qualify, you needed 35 Vintage format points, which you get through Top8ing Challenges or grinding leagues. Not super easy unless you play Magic in front of your computer more than I'm comfortable doing on a regular basis.
I've been tuning it all week in preparation for the tournament. A few notes:
When I started of, my main focus was: 1) Karn decks, 2) the mirror, and 3) Jeskai. For that reason, I moved Hollow Ones to the sideboard. They are terrible against Jeskai, good against Karn, and weak in Games 1 in the mirror (they are excellent in the Leyline "subgame").
As I was testing, the metagame abruptly shifted more towards BUG and Survival. Force of Negation is best against Karn decks, but terrible in the mirror, decent against Survival, but subpar against BUG. Therefore, I moved to Force of Negation to the Sideboard.
Since I was worried more and more about Deathrite Shaman, I cut the SB Dakmore Salvage, and added a 3rd Contagion.
Hogaak is phenomenal, but you get can away with just 3. It's a card that can win games that no other card can win, especially with Sphere effects in play. I won through lots of Spheres in otherwise unwinnable games because of him. But you only want to be able to hit 2 to make Bridges (I won one game doing 120+ damage).
Chalice of the Void is an all-star, and so is Probe. I can't understand how any Dredge deck wouldn't run both. It's just objectively wrong. I feel the same way about less than 4 Ichorid.
If I was going to the NYSE, I would definitely play this deck, and not worry too much about hate. It can win through 3-4 pieces of hate with a bit of tempo advantage and shifting roles from dredging to Hollow One attack or just slow running Ichorids.