@vaughnbros you can cast this turn 2 as easily as they're can cast Survival turn 1 and have 1 turn unimpeded, making this too slow. That's my point. Is this good enough to see play when it "kinda hurts" whatever you're trying to hurt?
I feel as if you are downplaying just what "kinda hurts" means.
It piths all of their fetches as well as survival, and depending on the build many even demonic tutor, etc. It removes any progress they may have made already by killing any vengevines in the yard. It will almost undoubtedly be used with other gravehate because that is how grave hate works.
I think this is more than kinda hurts frankly. No it is not a 1 card silver bullet, but it is certainly strong enough against a large swatch of decklists that it may be viable, and synergistic with enough stuff that its not like you are just shoving it in for one reason only.
This could have had some potential as a storm sb card that is more versatile than just for the dredge matchup, it would be pretty easy to cast on turn one with rituals.
The main issue I see is that this is actually really bad as dredge hate, all they have to do is sandbag the bazaar activation to your EOT and go nuts on their turn.
My favourite deck to play is "survival". I would not be so scarred of this one - it is NOT instant speed. In your end phase I would put up the graveyard with survival and/or BoB, then in my main I would do, what my deck does - trigger and attack. My plan B would be as often to go aggro, as I do quite often, to all those that oversideboard against me.
The key limitation on these cards is again their ability to be removed via combat (unlike traditional hate pieces). So yes, this card does have a significant impact against Survival if it stays in play. The challenge is going to be keeping it on the table, especially since it cannot gain loyalty and it's -2 puts it in range of a single Basking Rootwalla or Hollow One.
A planeswalker can be attacked, but also can't be disenchanted. This will make this effect stronger in some matchups, like against Storm, and weaker in others, like against Survival.
The uncommon walkers not being able to grow certainly makes evaluation different from a normal planeswalker. However, unlike creatures/enchantments, they all still have a very wide array of effects. E.g. This card has 3 distinct powerful effects.
There are a large number of planeswalkers that are great against creatures and dealing with things sorcery speed, one of the issues with playing a lot of walkers was dealing with these problems with supplements like a large suite of counterspells, these cards kind of address that issue to some degree. You still have the problem of the curve mostly starting on 3, but there are certainly options to deal with that.
Was rushing to get things done before streaming the Vintage Challenge today.
I think that the point stands that Ashiok can be attacked and removed makes it a less viable hate piece against creature-based decks right now, like Survival and even Dredge (since most lists are running 4 main deck Hollow Ones).
I think one huge thing that people are missing with Ashiok vs survival: He can disrupt for 1-2 turns and can be killed through combat damage. But if he is dying to combat damage, YOU are not dying to combat damage.
Vintage is a game of turns - as in you win or lose by the difference of one turn VERY often. If you buy 2 turns through grave exile, stifling survival, and redirecting combat damage away from your face, you essentially played timewalkx2 for 1UU (1BU, 1BB). If they printed a card that said "1UU sorcery, take an additional 2 turns" it'd be beyond busted. Ashiok gives you at least a turn if not 2 vs this deck. THAT'S the biggest accomplishment for the dream render.
You are assuming a very narrow condition is met, but I feel I've expressed myself well enough.
I am not high enough on this card that I want to brew around it or run it in any of the shells I have in my gauntlet. To each their own. Thank you everyone for the interesting discussion.
Edit: I'm also incredibly willing to be proven wrong, especially if it means vintage becomes more diverse. I know I always try to prove others wrong when a card I think is playable is being underestimated. Good luck to anyone who tries to break this card
@thewhitedragon69 I'd actually be very interested in data with a % of matches that would have been won by the opponent on their next turn, as I feel there are also a good % of blowout matches.
That should be fairly easy to gather data on, if anyone feels like taking notes on their next playtesting or tournament
Edit: I'm also incredibly willing to be proven wrong, especially if it means vintage becomes more diverse.
Considering much of the power this card has is derived from the fact that it can be powered out by moxen/lotus and is in the same color as ancestral and time walk and can pitch to force with MM backup, I am not sure that making the meta more diverse is the proper metric to judge this with. If anything, if this card became prominent it would make the format either less diverse or push out some lists in favor of others for a net neutral shift.
Like, I know this is unlikely, but let's just go ahead and say that this dude becomes a powerful wincon/engine card in the super friends list because of his flexable casting cost. The super friends list is for all intents just a blue control deck with mostly similar pieces as other base blue control decks, so that's not a huge change. When building the list you likely have to consider fair cards since he shuts down so many search engines, so suddenly fetches may be too much of a vulnerability to play. No fetches means relying on true duals or basics, which means single color and dual color lists that don't search and don't need the yard are suddenly much more viable. Goblins and Merfolk could come back. Wastelands becomes that much better because people cannot protect mana with fetches. Removal may become more premium as the format gets lower to the ground and more caverns get played.
Point is, I've watched this format long enough to see several tectonic shifts in the meta and what is considered playable, and I have yet to see anything that makes me really stop and go "wow, the format is now so diverse and accessible. You can brew all sorts of stuff" because at the end of the day the pillars really do not shift at all.
@wagner I'll have to keep track next time. It's probably not as often as I think, it's just those games leave an impression. Often I run decks that win in one shot (combos, Marit Lage, vault/key, etc.) so I can have dealt 0 damage all game and would have won on my next card drawn. One of my favorite modern decks is a combo deck that does jack shit except survive until I combo, then wins in one swoop. When I lose, inevitably my next draw was the missing combo piece - just because my decks love to mock me.