@Daniel-Worobec @ajfirecracker I have a lot to say about this because I have thought a lot about Dredge sideboards.

I have found that most Pitch Dredge decks use a creature to give your other creatures haste such as Flame-kin Zealot and Dragonlord Kolaghan. While both are effective they are neither blue nor green that can be exiled to Force of Will or Force of Vigor. I believe Maelstrom Wanderer is a good alternative to be added to Pitch Dredge that is both blue, green and can be exiled to cast Force of Will and Force of Vigor and should be added as the “Haste” creature.

I think this is a really good idea with some good reasoning behind. I think that the inclusion of "pro-active" cards like Force of Vigor, and creatures (duh). I think with the inclusion of Maelstrom Wanderer increases the value of Hogaak, Arisen Necropolis as it is a bigger payoff to Cascade into than most of our cards (being either small creatures or counter spells).

Sideboard option one:

4x Force of Vigor

4x Noxious Revival

3x Shambling Shell

I have done quite a bit of testing with Noxious Revival and I am pretty confident that in a "normal" Pitch Dredge shell you often want 2-3 but that 4 is to many. Also as @ajfirecracker said there is little to no value of playing Dredge cards in the SB.

I find that adding four Noxious Revival would be good candidates for being cards that you can exile to Force of Vigor. Noxious Revival is a good utility cards in Pitch Dredge decks allowing you to recover a Bazaar of Baghdad and getting a second Bazaar from your graveyard. Noxious Revival is also good at getting utility cards from your graveyard such as Force of Will, Force of Vigor or getting a Hollow One into your hand. Other applications include putting a card onto of your opponent’s deck that they may not want, saving a Bridge from Below from being exiled and putting a Narcomoeba on top of your library.

Yes! Noxious Revival is a very good card in my opinion for the Dredge SB and I think is a necessity in the current version as they are a lot weaker to waste effects than they have been in the past. As you can tell there are many, many uses to Noxious Revival and I have been very nicely impressed with it. My biggest complaint with it is that it is yet another source of card disadvantage in a deck with 8-12 pieces of card disadvantage which can lead to you being unable to fully capitalize on its power at times.

Sideboard option two:

4x Force of Vigor

4x Basking Rootwalla

3x Vengevine

Again, like @ajfirecracker said I do not think Vengevine has a spot in the SB of Dredge as it is weak to all of the same things that our other creatures are. Basking Rootwalla is a card that I really like and have thought about a lot in the past and I think can spawn a new type of SB for Dredge because of Force of Negation (I will expand on this later).

In my play testing I do find that getting the appropriate combinations of cards into your hand is inconsistent.

Ah, yes. The biggest advantage of Bazaar of Baghdad can also be its biggest weakness at times. This comes back to my point of not being able to fully capitalize on your powerful cards because you are so low on resources (ie you cannot resolve the cards you are digging for or you cannot dig as efficiently or quickly as you would like because you have so few cards in hand)> I have a few ideas on this later.

Sideboard option three:

4x Force of Vigor

4x Elvish Spirit Guide

2x Nature’s Claim

I like this and recognize that it is not a complete SB but you most likely need some answers to Containment Priest.

With the London Mulligan taking into effect soon, Pitch Dredge may not rely on Serum Powder as much and there may be decks that do not include Serum Powder.

I think this statement is very risky. If you look at the math you are roughly 97% to hit Bazaar without Serum Powder with the London Mulligan, yet with Serum Powder you are roughly 99%. Now assuming you lose every game where you do not have Bazaar of Baghdad in your opener and that you have a 50% win rate (when you have Bazaar in your opener) then the inclusion of Serum Powder boosts your overall expected win rate by roughly 1% (it is actually a bit more I think), and this number goes up the better player you are! So to cut Serum Powder you would have to find a set of 4 cards that boosts your win rate by more than roughly 1% for it to be worth it. Is that possible? Most likely. Have we found what cards yet? I am not convinced. Additionally Serum Powder increases the average number of cards in our opening hand which is also heavily correlated with winning the game for Dredge.

Notable creatures to put in Pitch Dredge to help support Force cards are Domia, Sage of Stone, Muldrotha, the Gravetide, Prophet of Kruphix and Hogaak, Arisen Necropolis.

I think Damia, Sage of Stone is a possibility as it allows us to have more cards in hand (more countermagic, resources), digging power, and speed but I think it may be win-more. If you could Dread Return a Damia is it better than Dread Returning an FKZ or DLK (most likely winning you the game on the spot)? As for Muldrotha, the Gravetide I think that you need to heavily tune your list for this to be playable as there is nothing we can play from the GY for value that we can not already, if you made a more land heavy list with Loams and such then it could be alright. Prophet of Kruphix seems really bad to me, not enough lands in the deck to use it, might as well DR a huge green creature. Hogaak seems worthwhile, not because he pitches (we want it to be blue and green for that) but rather because he seems viable post SB as he can be cast from GY through Priest and can be cast through Cage from hand for free.

4x Bazaar of Baghdad

4x Bridge from Below

4x Stinkweed Imp

4x Cabal Therapy

4x Hollow One

2x Ichorid

2x Dread Return

1x Elesh Norn, Grand Cenobite

4x Narcomoeba

4x Prized Amalgam

4x Force of Will

4x Mental Misstep

3x Force of Negation

1x Maelstrom Wanderer

4x Force of Vigor

4x Noxious Revival

4x Golgari Grave-Troll

3x Shambling Shell

This seems like a good starting 60, but I think you want to shave some Shambling Shells for an Ichorid and a Force of Negation

I am now going to provide a few 60s and 75s that I think have some theoretical merit and will explain why.

1st List: May 4th Dredge

"Normal" Pitch Dredge with Force of Vigor

This is a pretty normal looking MD with some of the changes I suggested you make. I did not include the SB because I think it is one of the most complex and important decisions for Dredge.
For this version the SB needs to include between 2 or 3 of the following:

  1. Answers to GY hate (an the means to execute it).
  2. Another axis of attack.
  3. Redundancy.

The Antihate SB
Now when you break into option #1 you have a few targets. You must be able to deal with the following effects/cards as efficiently as possible:
Containment Priest
Grafdigger's Cage
Leyline of the Void
Tormod's Crypt
Pithing Needle
Yixlid Jailer*
Rest in Peace*
Now the ones with a * are rarer or lower quality concerns because they are either not very good (RiP) or not very popular (Yixlid Jailer).
Now most SB include very broad and efficient answer such as Nature's Claim or Chain of Vapor. Because Force of Vigor fits this role we may be able to more carefully curate our SB with more powerful or narrow cards to be able to beat certain specific cards or matchups. With this in mind I propose Survival all-star, pet card of mine, and a card I have been thinking about a lot and testing a bit, Squee, Goblin Nabob. Yes, you read that right. Squee. In a Dredge SB. Here is the thing though, in matchups or situations where you GY is not permanently exiled (which is a decent amount since only 2 of the above cards achieve this) he is insane. While you GY may be "locked down" or you are unable to get your normal value out of it, Squee operates on a different axis than our other value as nothing is put onto the battlefield or cast, getting around Priest, Cage and Countermagice. Additionally he solves one of the biggest issues I have mentioned with Pitch lists; low resources (not many cards in hand). With Squee operation you are not only able to dig much more efficiently but your hand size will increase by 1 every turn provided you are not doing anything else. This is very important if you are looking for something like a Hollow One and want to keep your Countermagic live or the where you want to find your land for your anti-hate spell. As promised here is a suggested rough draft antihate SB along with a note on what role each card serves:

1 Squee, Goblin Nabob (Utility)
2 Noxious Revival (Utility/Answer)
4 Gemstone Mine (Mana)
1 Mana Confluence (Mana)
1 Vengeful Pharaoh (Disruption/Answer)
3 Chain of Vapor (Answer)
3 Nature's Claim (Answer)

The Delver SB
This is my take on option #2 (for @ajfirecracker it used to be Marit Lage).

4 Squee (Utility)
3 Noxious Revival (Utility/Answer)
4 Basking Rootwalla (Transformation)
1 Strip Mine (Disruption)?
1 Wasteland (Disruption)?
2 Hogaak (with some MD)

So this SB is extremely theoretical so far but the new Forces + Hogaak allow you to have what I think is a sufficient critical mass of not only free creatures that do not rely directly rely on the GY but also Counters to "ride" these highly efficient creatures to victory. This strategy is somewhat similar to Delver decks in Legacy but taken to the extreme. @brianpk80 has been very vocal recently about how Hollow One allows Dredge to "transform" into a Delver deck and I think this SB is mean to capitalize on that idea to the max. The Strip Mine and Wastelands are there because I would imagine you need a few lands in the Shops matchup, because it furthers your disruption while again being on a different axis and because it could really help you in the mirror.

I wanted to also just throw a few decklists out there to get more ideas brewing and to think of how the 60 impacts and complements the final 15.

3rd List: Blue.dec

How much interaction is to much? (How to piss off BPK)

Please let me know your thoughts and suggestions. If I made any mistakes or did something dumb please let me know as I stayed up way to late trying to do this since I got excited. I have many more ideas on the subject and have discussed it a lot and cannot wait to begin testing on MODO soon (PS if anybody is looking to sell Dredge on MTGO for a nice price PM me).

Edit: Fixed some counting stuff cause I am tired and bad at math. Also realized none of these lists have any GY hate so that could be an issue in an open meta.

last edited by Rat3dE

We're never going to cascade even with Maelstrom Wanderer

Gravecrawler is probably a must for a Vengevine-based list

I would be looking at additional anti-hate resources in the manaless context, including possibly manaless creature removal

last edited by ajfirecracker

This card is really, really good. I even bring it in against Oath as a removal for Oath itself or to just destroy two Moxen if I for instance have a Containment Priest in play or want to disrupt their mana development.

I believe that this will be the go-to anti-artifact sideboard card for Hatebears going forward. Especially now that the London mulligan is coming to stay.

last edited by Griselbrother

@rat3de said in [MH1] Force of Vigor:

The archetype is going to put me in an early grave. 😛

Great ideas here, and props to the thinkers who understand what an obscenely powerful wrecking ball this Megapitch Dredge stands to be.

Force of Vigor and Force of Negation on their own are beatable for Oath, when they are combined the game becomes much more difficult. I think the new Dredge decks are really cool, but I think a Dredger might be restricted over these two cards.

Restricting Grave-Troll would potentially put a damper on Force of Vigor in particular, but more generally I don't think restricting a single dredger is an effective way to control the strength of Dredge. Current Vintage Dredge decks recycle the same dredgers repeatedly in a typical game, so the Dredge player only needs 1-2 of their best dredgers to operate near maximum efficiency. A dredge player who digs (say) 28 cards into their deck by the third turn is only barely weaker than one who digs 32 cards into their deck in the same time-frame. The extra cards obviously do matter, but keep in mind that Dredge is also getting new graveyard tools over time like Hogaak, Prized Amalgam, and Vengeful Pharaoh.

Deck wins 0 major tournaments and we are discussing restriction?

Get Misstep out of the deck and actually resolve Pithing Needle, Cage, Plow on Hollow One. Making Dredge actually spend mana on things is what slows it down and makes it sane. Right now we're seeing actual no mana dredge because they have 12 no-mana counterspells, 4 no-mana duresses, and now 4 no-mana mega Naturalize.

Mental Misstep may be the least powerful card in the deck

@ChubbyRain Nice work.

I think there is a error in "Chance of Green card out of the remaining six cards", your results correspond to a population of 59 = (60 - 1 * Force) but it should be done with population of 56 = (60 - 4 * Force).

Everything else seems good for me.

Has anyone considered trying to run a copy of Muldrotha, the Gravetide, Karona, Falae God, and/or Sidsi, Brood Tyrant in their lists?

Muldrotha functions like a bad sun titan in the list in that if you have not played a land that turn he allows you to play a bazaar from the yard. If you are so inclined he also lets you replay tormods crypt every turn he is on the field. Sidsi is kinda just a 5th bridge effect when she is on the battlefield. Karona is a stretch but she has some ability to fill the same role as Flame-Kin Zealot if you have enough things that can just attack that turn without needing haste.

Normally I would not even consider them but the reason I ask is because both of them pitch to Force of Will, Force of Vigor, Force of Negation, and Unmask and are not just totally dead cards that do not fit the theme of the list otherwise. With all the pitch stuff the deck as it feels like at this point we going to have to start evaluating what pitches to what almost as much as we look at number of dredgers and the like.

@cuikui thanks! Will update it tonight.


Muldrotha is good if you are playing Hollow one as you can cast two copies of Hollow one off of her (using her artifact + creature options).

@cuikui said in [MH1] Force of Vigor:

@ChubbyRain Nice work.

I think there is a error in "Chance of Green card out of the remaining six cards", your results correspond to a population of 59 = (60 - 1 * Force) but it should be done with population of 56 = (60 - 4 * Force).

Everything else seems good for me.

I'm not a math guy, but this seems wrong. If you are running 4 force of vigor and 1 is the first card you draw, then there are 59 cards left. One of the green cards could be force of vigor. Unless of course you plan on never pitching fov to fov. But its still a population of 59.

Does the math account for +2 cards with Bazaar, and/or mulligans?

@Khahan Unfortunately probability is rarely intuitive.

The mathematical proof:

We consider 3 type of card a, b, c and a deck with Na + Nb + Nc = 60 copies of each card.
The probably of having exactly A + B + C = 7 in a hand of 7 is given by

P(A, B, C; 60) = comb(Na, A) * comb(Nb, B) * comb(Nc, C) / comb(60, 7)

By introducing comb(60 - Na, 7 - A) in the middle we obtain

P(A, B, C; 60) = [comb(Na, A) * comb(60 - Na, 7 - A) / comb(60, 7)] * [comb(Nb, B) * comb(Nc, C) / comb(60 - Na, 7 - A)]

We recognize the probability for 2 type of card and use C = 7 - A - B to obtain

P(A, B, 7 - A - B; 60) = P(A, 7 - A; 60) * P(B, 7 - A - B, 60 - A)

Wikipedia for more detail.

The interpretation is: For each new type of card you have to remove the all the copy of the previous type of card.

This is not easy, I had to redo the proof to convince myself there was an error in the spreadsheet.


Correct to a degree, although it is looks like you are just referencing the multivariate Hypergeometric distribution, which I think is still fairly intuitive. That's not exactly the main question being asked though. The most important one is:
P(At least 2 Green Cards | Force of Vigor) = P(At least 2 Green Cards, including Force of Vigor) / P(Force of Vigor)

For the numerator of P(At least 2 Green Cards, including Force of Vigor) you use the multivariate as you've laid out. That is then divided by the P(Force of Vigor) alone.


No, those aren't factored in. Closest approximation you are going to get using the Hypergeometric is using a hand size of 6 + 2. Reality is you need to run a simulation to get the more accurate number. Due to the complexity of the problem, I don't think there is a standard statistical distribution that would work.

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