@ChubbyRain Nice work.

I think there is a error in "Chance of Green card out of the remaining six cards", your results correspond to a population of 59 = (60 - 1 * Force) but it should be done with population of 56 = (60 - 4 * Force).

Everything else seems good for me.

Has anyone considered trying to run a copy of Muldrotha, the Gravetide, Karona, Falae God, and/or Sidsi, Brood Tyrant in their lists?

Muldrotha functions like a bad sun titan in the list in that if you have not played a land that turn he allows you to play a bazaar from the yard. If you are so inclined he also lets you replay tormods crypt every turn he is on the field. Sidsi is kinda just a 5th bridge effect when she is on the battlefield. Karona is a stretch but she has some ability to fill the same role as Flame-Kin Zealot if you have enough things that can just attack that turn without needing haste.

Normally I would not even consider them but the reason I ask is because both of them pitch to Force of Will, Force of Vigor, Force of Negation, and Unmask and are not just totally dead cards that do not fit the theme of the list otherwise. With all the pitch stuff the deck as it feels like at this point we going to have to start evaluating what pitches to what almost as much as we look at number of dredgers and the like.

@cuikui thanks! Will update it tonight.

@protoaddict

Muldrotha is good if you are playing Hollow one as you can cast two copies of Hollow one off of her (using her artifact + creature options).

@cuikui said in [MH1] Force of Vigor:

@ChubbyRain Nice work.

I think there is a error in "Chance of Green card out of the remaining six cards", your results correspond to a population of 59 = (60 - 1 * Force) but it should be done with population of 56 = (60 - 4 * Force).

Everything else seems good for me.

I'm not a math guy, but this seems wrong. If you are running 4 force of vigor and 1 is the first card you draw, then there are 59 cards left. One of the green cards could be force of vigor. Unless of course you plan on never pitching fov to fov. But its still a population of 59.

Does the math account for +2 cards with Bazaar, and/or mulligans?

@Khahan Unfortunately probability is rarely intuitive.

The mathematical proof:

We consider 3 type of card a, b, c and a deck with Na + Nb + Nc = 60 copies of each card.
The probably of having exactly A + B + C = 7 in a hand of 7 is given by

P(A, B, C; 60) = comb(Na, A) * comb(Nb, B) * comb(Nc, C) / comb(60, 7)

By introducing comb(60 - Na, 7 - A) in the middle we obtain

P(A, B, C; 60) = [comb(Na, A) * comb(60 - Na, 7 - A) / comb(60, 7)] * [comb(Nb, B) * comb(Nc, C) / comb(60 - Na, 7 - A)]

We recognize the probability for 2 type of card and use C = 7 - A - B to obtain

P(A, B, 7 - A - B; 60) = P(A, 7 - A; 60) * P(B, 7 - A - B, 60 - A)

Wikipedia for more detail.

The interpretation is: For each new type of card you have to remove the all the copy of the previous type of card.

This is not easy, I had to redo the proof to convince myself there was an error in the spreadsheet.

@cuikui

Correct to a degree, although it is looks like you are just referencing the multivariate Hypergeometric distribution, which I think is still fairly intuitive. That's not exactly the main question being asked though. The most important one is:
P(At least 2 Green Cards | Force of Vigor) = P(At least 2 Green Cards, including Force of Vigor) / P(Force of Vigor)

For the numerator of P(At least 2 Green Cards, including Force of Vigor) you use the multivariate as you've laid out. That is then divided by the P(Force of Vigor) alone.

@Smmenen

No, those aren't factored in. Closest approximation you are going to get using the Hypergeometric is using a hand size of 6 + 2. Reality is you need to run a simulation to get the more accurate number. Due to the complexity of the problem, I don't think there is a standard statistical distribution that would work.

Patrick Chapin designed this card in 2006:
Acidic Slug
Creature - Slug
1GG
Remove Acidic Slug from your hand from the game, remove X Green cards from your hand from the game: Destroy X target artifacts.
2/4

Reference: http://www.starcitygames.com/magic/vintage/13330_A_Vintage_Chapin_Vintage_Article.html

I think Force of Vigor is better, actually. But Acidic Slug is uncounterable (except by stifle effects), and probably less useable across archetypes.

Vintage has been waiting 13 years for Force of Vigor, which I now rank next to the likes of Force of Will and Leyline of the Void.

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