This is an extension of the previous post.
Cycle Dredge was off to a great start in testing for me before the restriction of Grave-Troll.
When Troll was restricted I responding by making a the conservative change of going -3 Troll, +3 Shell.
When a deck is already tops it seems that less is more.
The deck was a disaster. It went from first to worst. Basically I was using the cycle cards to replace normal cards in hand with extra draws. When those draws were Dredges for 6 it was great because my dredge normally hit another Dredger. When those draws became Dredges or 3 it was much worse. I might not even hit a dredger.
I was also inspired by the some of the ideas at the bottom of the thread I am referencing.
nsammael was pushing for an aggressive version of Fatestitcher Dredge.
That version was performing poorly for me the last time I tested it, but that was in a world where Mental Misstep was unrestricted. Maybe now that Misstep is restricted Chain of Vapor and Nature's Claim are better.
I spent the past weekend writing a program to simulate millions of Dredge games. I had two modes.
One was goldfish mode. The other was goldfish against a Leyline mode.
I hard coded that 4 Cabal Therapies are needed in the main.
From there I asked which lists had the fastest average goldfish. I did not count turns past 7, so if you fizzle it counts the same as a turn 7 win.
Here is what I found:
sideboard: (only 14 listed)
2 Hollow One
1 Flame-Kin Zealot
4 Chain of Vapor
3 Tropical Island (Could be City of Brass. Needs access to U/G)
1 Lotus Petal
3 Nature's Claim
3 Golgari Thug
3 Mox Diamond
3 Serum Powder
2 Shambling Shell
1 Cephalid Coliseum
1 Hogaak Arisen Necropolis
1 Once upon a Time
The simulations are not using any kind of intelligent. It is all totally heuristic driven so the plays are not optimal.
Just looking at some of the replays I have noticed that I am not always happen about when LED is cracked or which target Sun Titan picks. Even the cards that are discarded to Bazaar can be wrong.
The goldfish speed of the main deck is about turn 2.73. This would be the equivalent of about 27% turn 2 wins and 73% turn 3 wins. That is not what happens there are a few turn 1 wins and a lot of turn 4 wins and the turn 2 win percentage is over 27%.
The goldfish speed vs Leyline post board is about 3.83, so just Leyline slows you down by about 1.1 turns.
Note that there is no possibility of your Leyline removal being countered.
Also, the 4th Nature's Claim was already super close to optimal.
Post board the worst cards in the deck are Sun Titan#2 and Hollow One#4.
The best cards left out were Tropical Island#4 and Bloodghast #1.
The worst card in the main is Shambling Shell #2 and the best card left out is Once Upon a Time #1.
I also tried limiting my sideboard to 11 cards. This way I would leave room for 4 Leyline of the Void.
When I do that the Mox Diamonds leave the main deck and Tropical Islands come in.
EDIT: I also had Emerald Charm originally, which was prefered to Nature's Claim since I am only testing against Leyline and not Grafdigger's Cage. I handled that by banning Emerald Charm but allowing up to 8 Nature's Claim.
One of the things I found was that Serum Powder was not particularly good post board. This surprised me. It is actually not amazing in the main either. You can drop to 7 Serum Powders taking very little hit. When I made room for Leylines, I only had 7 Serum Powders in the main.
The Mox Diamonds are pretty solid. They frequently lead to turn 2 wins. You can discard a 2nd Bazaar or a Coliseum to play Mox Diamond on turn 1 and then get a second Bazaar activation if you have Fatestitcher. Then turn 2 you get 2 more Bazaar activations assuming you find a 2nd Fatestitcher.
Running all the artifact mana and few lands made Bloodghast pretty bad.
I added Breakthrough and it is definitely worth it:
New list that saves room for 4 Leylines which I also think are worth it:
} end deck
} end sideboard