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    MTGO March 2016 Power 9 Challenge

    Official Tournament Results
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    • diophan
      diophan last edited by diophan

      Here is the meta breakdown for the March MTGO Power 9 Challenge, for which Matt Murray (chubbyrain) and I once again collected data. Decklists for the top16 (with navigation in what I believe is Spanish because WOTC is great at designing websites) are available here: http://magic.wizards.com/en/articles/archive/mtgo-standings/vintage-premier-2016-03-27

      Congratulations to Montolio for winning the tournament.

      Total Number of Players 74

      Shops (ravager, aggro, tiny robots, dark depths, uba stax)
      Number of Players 15
      Win Percentage 52.6%

      Gush (mentor, delver, grixis pyromancer)
      Number of Players 18
      Win Percentage 55.2%

      "Blue Control" (landstill, grixis, painter, thoughtcast, etc.)
      Number of Players 14
      Win Percentage 40.9%

      Dredge (traditional, pitch)
      Number of Players 8
      Win Percentage 50.9%

      Oath (odd, omni)
      Number of Players 3
      Win Percentage 77.8%

      Combo (DPS, doomsday, gush tendrils)
      Number of Players 6
      Win Percentage 48.6%

      Other (white trash, BUG fish, miscellaneous singleton decks)
      Number of Players 9
      Win Percentage 38.6%

      No Show
      Number of Players 1

      Here are the archetype vs. archetype winrates:
      alt text
      And the sample sizes:
      alt text

      Blue Control is a large, not very coherent grouping, but for the sake of not having too many categories we lumped all the large'ish and/or controlling blue decks together. A notable breakout from this category was UW Landstill, which had 3 pilots with a 50% win percentage.

      The obvious big takeaway here is shops coming down to earth from the last month. I built my delver deck with shops in mind, and I suspect many others were gunning for this deck. Oath's win percentage was obviously very high, but given it only had 3 pilots, and one was the winner of the entire tournament, I think we can chalk this up to a small sample size and people being woefully underprepared for it.

      Gush and shops appear to be a notch above the other archetypes. This does not surprise me, but note that the dominance of gush in January (58.2%) and shops in February (61.2%) were brought closer to 50%. It's quite possible next month we'll again see shops and gush swap positions as people move their crossairs.

      There are a ton of interesting things to say about the archetype vs. archetype numbers. Rather than making a huge post, I will just point out what I think is the most interesting feature: how well gush did versus shops versus how well blue control did against shops. Note that calculating these took a long time, so I would not be surprised if those aren't going to happen every month.

      EDIT: Numbers were adjusted slightly from last night since we had Deibler's (spicy) deck misclassified .

      matori 1 Reply Last reply Reply Quote 7
      • ?
        A Former User last edited by

        Thanks for doing the write up Ryan and congrats on the Top 8 finish.

        1 Reply Last reply Reply Quote 2
        • B
          bschl last edited by

          Grats to Andrew Markiton (montolio), Ryan and the rest of the top8!

          1 Reply Last reply Reply Quote 0
          • Klep
            Klep TMD Supporter last edited by

            Thanks for taking the trouble to make this analysis @diophan and @ChubbyRain. That breakdown looks like a pretty healthy metagame, with a few fortunate people making the apparently correct decision to play Oath.

            1 Reply Last reply Reply Quote 0
            • The Atog Lord
              The Atog Lord last edited by

              Thanks so much for writing this up. And huge congratulations to Montolio!

              "On the other hand, they have admitted that text matters." -- Smmenen

              1 Reply Last reply Reply Quote 1
              • K
                Kasparadi last edited by

                Thanks for the data! Grats to top8!
                It's good to have such a tournament around. It's always fun to follow results.. Even if I can't play it(7+ hours play starting at night don't work well for me).

                1 Reply Last reply Reply Quote 0
                • Samoht
                  Samoht last edited by

                  Clearly, since Randy lost to Shops we should restrict LSG.

                  Seriously, awesome job to Montolio and the numbers look great.

                  "It was probably a lousy spell in the first place" - Ertai, Wizard Adept

                  “He traded sand for skins, skins for gold, gold for life. In the end, he traded life for sand.” –Afari, Tales

                  The Academy

                  1 Reply Last reply Reply Quote 0
                  • CHA1N5
                    CHA1N5 last edited by

                    Thanks, again, and keep it up!

                    Host of the So Many Insane Plays podcast.

                    1 Reply Last reply Reply Quote 0
                    • sodoyouwearacape
                      sodoyouwearacape last edited by

                      Really awesome info, thanks guys for compiling this, especially so quickly. And really stoked for Montolio taking down the whole thing - a true MTGO Vintage warrior!

                      I hope results like this are actually something R&D cast a glance at when considering the B/R list. I hope....

                      Look forward to the next, even if I was roundly trounced this time round. Happy easter y'all.

                      1 Reply Last reply Reply Quote 0
                      • Islandswamp
                        Islandswamp TMD Supporter last edited by

                        Oath has won two of the Power Nine Challenges. I think that people writing that deck off are making a mistake.
                        Oath has a ton of crazy draws, turn one Orchard Mox Oath is relatively common. Add to that the fact that the deck has a positive match up against the most popular deck online, and it makes sense that it can occasionally spike an event.
                        I was trying to run one Omniscience as a way to play a bomb through Containment Priest, but I didn't have much luck with it and abandoned it. Looks like that's what won the event though. Nice work 🙂

                        Check out my articles on www.MTGGoldfish.com - Follow me on Twitter @josephfiorinijr - Islandswamp on Magic Online - Support more content @ https://www.patreon.com/user?u=4271290

                        I was a hand grenade that never stopped exploding...

                        1 Reply Last reply Reply Quote 1
                        • joshuabrooks
                          joshuabrooks TMD Supporter last edited by joshuabrooks

                          Great report @diophan @ChubbyRain . I find your recaps always interesting,

                          Way to audible to Oath Andy and keep the DCI off the scent of shops ;). Grats.

                          1 Reply Last reply Reply Quote 0
                          • Dayton
                            Dayton TMD Supporter last edited by

                            Thanks @diophan @ChubbyRain Great work!

                            Gerrad: "But it doesn't do anything!"
                            Hanna: "No--- it does nothing."

                            1 Reply Last reply Reply Quote 0
                            • Leoj
                              Leoj last edited by

                              I had considered an audible to Oath but had signed up in the morning and got back right at 2. Instead I got to contribute a 1-4 performance to the Shops record. 😕

                              I did inspire a "restrict LSG" tweet from Randy so that's something I guess.

                              1 Reply Last reply Reply Quote 2
                              • S
                                seguin19 last edited by

                                Thanks for putting all this together guys!

                                1 Reply Last reply Reply Quote 0
                                • spook
                                  spook last edited by

                                  Interesting to see the gradual decline in number of players month to month.

                                  Brass Man 1 Reply Last reply Reply Quote 0
                                  • Brass Man
                                    Brass Man @spook last edited by

                                    @spook That's not super surprising, the first few were always going to be a novelty with high turnouts, and this event was Easter weekend with a few big paper events, too. I expect to see the next few plateau or decline a little, but then the numbers to slowly go up over time, as more and more vintage players start realizing how awesome mtgo is 😄

                                    1 Reply Last reply Reply Quote 0
                                    • stsung
                                      stsung last edited by

                                      Thank you @diophan @ChubbyRain for the work you've done for us.
                                      Do you mind if I use the data in my report? (I would credit you of course).

                                      http://stsu.blogpost.com
                                      http://puremtgo.com/articles/recent?uid=stsung
                                      Twitter @stsungjp

                                      ? 1 Reply Last reply Reply Quote 0
                                      • Fisken
                                        Fisken last edited by

                                        Glad to see Managorger making an appearance on modo

                                        1 Reply Last reply Reply Quote 0
                                        • ?
                                          A Former User @stsung last edited by

                                          @stsung I don't mind at all. It's meant to be a benefit to the community as this type of data is really hard to get in Vintage.

                                          1 Reply Last reply Reply Quote 0
                                          • i_b_TRUE
                                            i_b_TRUE last edited by

                                            Good stuff guys and congrats to the Top 8 players!
                                            Cant wait until April!

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