MTGO March 2016 Power 9 Challenge

  • Here is the meta breakdown for the March MTGO Power 9 Challenge, for which Matt Murray (chubbyrain) and I once again collected data. Decklists for the top16 (with navigation in what I believe is Spanish because WOTC is great at designing websites) are available here:

    Congratulations to Montolio for winning the tournament.

    Total Number of Players 74

    Shops (ravager, aggro, tiny robots, dark depths, uba stax)
    Number of Players 15
    Win Percentage 52.6%

    Gush (mentor, delver, grixis pyromancer)
    Number of Players 18
    Win Percentage 55.2%

    "Blue Control" (landstill, grixis, painter, thoughtcast, etc.)
    Number of Players 14
    Win Percentage 40.9%

    Dredge (traditional, pitch)
    Number of Players 8
    Win Percentage 50.9%

    Oath (odd, omni)
    Number of Players 3
    Win Percentage 77.8%

    Combo (DPS, doomsday, gush tendrils)
    Number of Players 6
    Win Percentage 48.6%

    Other (white trash, BUG fish, miscellaneous singleton decks)
    Number of Players 9
    Win Percentage 38.6%

    No Show
    Number of Players 1

    Here are the archetype vs. archetype winrates:
    alt text
    And the sample sizes:
    alt text

    Blue Control is a large, not very coherent grouping, but for the sake of not having too many categories we lumped all the large'ish and/or controlling blue decks together. A notable breakout from this category was UW Landstill, which had 3 pilots with a 50% win percentage.

    The obvious big takeaway here is shops coming down to earth from the last month. I built my delver deck with shops in mind, and I suspect many others were gunning for this deck. Oath's win percentage was obviously very high, but given it only had 3 pilots, and one was the winner of the entire tournament, I think we can chalk this up to a small sample size and people being woefully underprepared for it.

    Gush and shops appear to be a notch above the other archetypes. This does not surprise me, but note that the dominance of gush in January (58.2%) and shops in February (61.2%) were brought closer to 50%. It's quite possible next month we'll again see shops and gush swap positions as people move their crossairs.

    There are a ton of interesting things to say about the archetype vs. archetype numbers. Rather than making a huge post, I will just point out what I think is the most interesting feature: how well gush did versus shops versus how well blue control did against shops. Note that calculating these took a long time, so I would not be surprised if those aren't going to happen every month.

    EDIT: Numbers were adjusted slightly from last night since we had Deibler's (spicy) deck misclassified .

  • Thanks for doing the write up Ryan and congrats on the Top 8 finish.

  • Grats to Andrew Markiton (montolio), Ryan and the rest of the top8!

  • TMD Supporter

    Thanks for taking the trouble to make this analysis @diophan and @ChubbyRain. That breakdown looks like a pretty healthy metagame, with a few fortunate people making the apparently correct decision to play Oath.

  • Thanks so much for writing this up. And huge congratulations to Montolio!

  • Thanks for the data! Grats to top8!
    It's good to have such a tournament around. It's always fun to follow results.. Even if I can't play it(7+ hours play starting at night don't work well for me).

  • Clearly, since Randy lost to Shops we should restrict LSG.

    Seriously, awesome job to Montolio and the numbers look great.

  • Thanks, again, and keep it up!

  • Really awesome info, thanks guys for compiling this, especially so quickly. And really stoked for Montolio taking down the whole thing - a true MTGO Vintage warrior!

    I hope results like this are actually something R&D cast a glance at when considering the B/R list. I hope....

    Look forward to the next, even if I was roundly trounced this time round. Happy easter y'all.

  • TMD Supporter

    Oath has won two of the Power Nine Challenges. I think that people writing that deck off are making a mistake.
    Oath has a ton of crazy draws, turn one Orchard Mox Oath is relatively common. Add to that the fact that the deck has a positive match up against the most popular deck online, and it makes sense that it can occasionally spike an event.
    I was trying to run one Omniscience as a way to play a bomb through Containment Priest, but I didn't have much luck with it and abandoned it. Looks like that's what won the event though. Nice work 🙂

  • TMD Supporter

    Great report @diophan @ChubbyRain . I find your recaps always interesting,

    Way to audible to Oath Andy and keep the DCI off the scent of shops ;). Grats.

  • TMD Supporter

    Thanks @diophan @ChubbyRain Great work!

  • I had considered an audible to Oath but had signed up in the morning and got back right at 2. Instead I got to contribute a 1-4 performance to the Shops record. 😕

    I did inspire a "restrict LSG" tweet from Randy so that's something I guess.

  • Thanks for putting all this together guys!

  • Interesting to see the gradual decline in number of players month to month.

  • @spook That's not super surprising, the first few were always going to be a novelty with high turnouts, and this event was Easter weekend with a few big paper events, too. I expect to see the next few plateau or decline a little, but then the numbers to slowly go up over time, as more and more vintage players start realizing how awesome mtgo is 😄

  • Thank you @diophan @ChubbyRain for the work you've done for us.
    Do you mind if I use the data in my report? (I would credit you of course).

  • Glad to see Managorger making an appearance on modo

  • @stsung I don't mind at all. It's meant to be a benefit to the community as this type of data is really hard to get in Vintage.

  • Good stuff guys and congrats to the Top 8 players!
    Cant wait until April!