@Macdeath said in [MTGO December Power 9 Challenge]):
Gush orgies vs Thorn decks and Fast combo. Isn't that the definition of a stale metagame?
This is Vintage. This is a format where you literally can play Control Slaver or The Deck for like 4 years straight. Are you surprised that the metagame changes slowly? That's the point of the format.
It is entirely normal for the most of the same decks to be good year over year. Stop whining about how slowly Vintage changes. That's the entire point of the format. That's a good thing.
"based upon a single 41 player event" ?!? Are you being serious right now ?
Absolutely. You used a single event in your post to suggest that something needs to be done, did you forget?
You said: "I don't mean to resurrect that old sterile debate, but 5 Mentor gush in the top 8 and almost 40% of gush decks in the metagame... Maybe it's time to actually do something already?"
Yes, you suggested something should be done because of a single tournament result.
It's crazy that you would accuse me of "using just one event" or cherry picking when that is exactly what you did.
Nowhere did you cite a broad data set or even present a single precise fact about the broader state of the metagame. You exaggerated, and rounded up even the basic facts presented in the OP.
I realize that anyone with a keyboard and computer and post whatever they want, but just because you say something doesn't make it true. That's unfortunately the case here.
What about the last 6 + months of data ?
What about it? You didn't present any data from the last six months. I, on the other hand, actually have:
Q3 Metagame data collected: http://www.eternalcentral.com/so-many-insane-plays-podcast-episode-56-conspiracy-2-and-the-evolving-vintage-metagame/
Q4 data collected: http://www.eternalcentral.com/so-many-insane-plays-podcast-episode-60-2016-year-in-review/
Please don't play the denial card, it was maybe plausible in may/june last year, but nobody can buy into this fallacious argumentation anymore. Not to be rude or anything but I think it's safe to say that your bias in the matter has already been firmly established I believe.
There have been only a tiny number of Vintage tournaments of more than 33 players in the entire world since the North American Vintage championship, and literally none to my knowledge with more than 100 players.
The fact that many of the best Vintage players in the world played in the Vintage Championship, and only 1 Gush deck made top 8 in a 350 player tournament is pretty compelling evidence in my opinion that - at the highest levels of competition and in broadest field, Gush is really not a problem.
When Lodestone golem and chalice of the void got restricted, the proportion of shops in the metagame was well under 30% (around 25% at most if I recall correctly) and it's rise to "dominance" was arguably only due to gush decks doing so well against other blue decks that kept workshops in check (such as bug fish, grixis control or oath).
Yeah, and again, Gush decks were only 22.2% at Vintage Champs, and only 1 in the Top 8.
It's funny that you mention Eldrazi, I don't see the problem with a deck that is less than 5% of the metagame performing outstandingly.
Neither do I. That wasn't my point. My point was how silly it was you pointing out that Gush decks had a "nearly 60% win percentage."
Especially when no one is gunning for that deck but rather making themselves more vulnerable to it in an effort to be on par with gush. If gush decks weren't the primary driving force in the metagame i'm pretty sure White Eldrazi and workshops would decrease in number and success.
I don't. Workshop decks were the best deck in the format when Gush was restricted, and won the 2005 Vintage Championship when Gush was restricted. What you are saying is more popular drivel with absolutely no support behind it.
Thank you for cherry picking the data to support the point/narrative you want, but how is "your" tournament result more evocative of what is happening in the metagame than the one (and many others before it ) that I am talking about?
I believe you mean "representative," not "evocative." But, as the only tournament in theQ4 period that is over 100 players, I'd say that's a pretty significant difference.
You haven't even done the work to look at tournament results, but are probably just relying on the work of others, without actually knowing any of the underlying facts. Stop doing that. It doesn't withstand a tiny bit of scrutiny.
Especially since in that tournament, Gush is still the most played subdivision of decks at 22% of the metagame (very close to the % shops was showing when it got cards restricted) even on one of it's bad days (where it's two arch-nemesis Shops and Eldrazi make up for almost 1/3 of the field).
Also please stop trying to shift the blame to thorn decks, they have already had 2 cards restricted because of Gush.
Wow, and you accuse me of bias?
You may be a good lawyer but in this situation the case against your "client" is simply to strong for you to be able to defend without resorting to fallacious argumentation. The numbers say a vastly different story and on a consistent basis.
No they dont.
At this point it's more a question of which of Gush or Mentor gets restricted.
If that were true, then they would have been restricted by now. The worst metagame period for Gush and Mentor in terms of both metagame representation and Top 8 penetration was in the three months following Lodestone's restriction.
But the emergence of the Eldrazi, and the continued insane printings for Workshops proves just how easily Gush decks are actually kept in checked by these strategies.
Not to mention, for a few months, Paradoxical Outcome was crushing Gush decks, which now have to run Null Rod/Stony Silence to not just get destroyed.
I have little doubt that the next MTGO P9 event will have much more Shops/Eldrazi showing up this time, and things will appear less imbalanced.
Stop whining and go play what is actually an interesting format.
As Chubbyrain said, let's wait to see how wizards reacts to what the "pros" and Randy have to say in the VSL, after all they haven't played on camera since lodestone got the hammer.
You have no idea what you are talking about. VSL S5 was last Summer, entirely after the restriction of Golem. Cite: https://vintagesuperleague.com/2016/04/27/vsl-return-pushed-to-may-3rd/
You, literally, are just making up facts in your post. Arguing with you is like arguing with people who post fake news. Because you are just making things up. I'll let someone else debunk your nonsense next time.