Well, it's better overall than Xantid Swarm, which is the floor, but has a much higher ceiling.
Xantid Swarm doesn't have to go unblocked and if it does can trigger multiple times. I'm inclined to agree Hope is better by virtue of its lax color requirement, but it's not a clear upgrade to Xantid Swarm by any stretch of the imagination.
@ajfirecracker Am I understanding you to say that you think this is worse than Silence?
Except for color requirement, basically yes
I think Artifact Silence is way better than Artifact Suspend 1 dies-to-anything blocked-by-fliers Silence and a half
Colorless Xantid Swarm might see play but I think Minislaver will not be a successful strategy
That's too binary, and underestimates the hybrid nature of Vintage deck construction. That's like saying someone can only use Fire/Ice in either the Fire or Ice mode. It's easily conceivable that someone uses this as both a Xantid Swarm for other threats as well as a recurring combo (Scepter Chant soft lock) threat in other situations. I could easily see someone building a Bomberman deck in paper Vintage that plays one or more of these somewhere in the 75.
Turning off a player for 1.5 turns is hugely different from turning them off for just a single turn. The way that Gush decks generate tokens is by playing spells on their turn. If they can't play spells on their turn, there are very few instants they would play on your turn to ramp up tokens that isn't targeting this creature for removal. Brainstorm and Dig are restricted. Gush is rarely optimally played on an opponents turn. And countermagic is shut off. Probe/Preordain/planeswalkers, and Cruise are all sorceries.
How often is Wear and Tear cast for both halves?
Silence has the same flexibility as Hope. You can use it as a bad Time Walk. You can use it as a super Duress. You can use it as a "hard lock" in the lategame with the help of specific recursion tools. It lacks the specific synergies that Hope has, and the ability to hit multiple "modes" at once, but it has all the flexibility.
So, now you have a new thing that does almost all of those roles worse than Silence (which already sees no play) and the new thing is allegedly a busted staple for years to come. I have a hard time imagining what deck could plausibly play this and values the combination of effects above and beyond their individual elements. Storm decks, for example, which use this as a 1-shot colorless Xantid Swarm, are not going to be focused on disrupting the opponent's next turn in a usually-modest way. There may be some corner cases with this and Hurkyll's Recall, but it's just not why they're putting it in the deck.
Let's place a bet on it. I am willing to bet $50 (fifty USD) on even odds that no deck will emerge as a metagame force (defined as Top 8 in 2 or more 32+ player events in a 3-month period, starting on the date the bet is accepted and ending 90 days later or March 31 2017, whichever comes first) which contains 2+ Hope and either Goblin Welder or Auriok Salvagers, and not counting finishes piloted by Stephen Menendian, Kevin Cron, or if some third individual wants to take the bet that player (the reason being that I could easily fulfill the bet with e.g. Dredge at the cost of 2 sideboard slots)
If I were doing a SMIP-style card prediction on the number of Top 8s I would put it at something like 3-4, but those would all be combo players trying it out as a colorless Xantid Swarm. I am quite confident that the number of players who will succeed with the Minislaver plan is zero, and am willing to put my money where my mouth is on that.
I agree that this card isn't the end-all and be-all Xantid Swarm, but I can see it slotted in trinket mage control decks (whether Bomberman or Blue Moon) as a way to ensure your opening for a combo kill in car d, or opens window to resolve a haymaker like Blood Moon in Blue Moon decks. I think Bomberman is better positioned to use this card but Blue moon needs this effect more, as it lost 3 chalices during that restriction and has needs something to fill the void. I think it is a very narrow card with very narrow applications.
The challenge for Bomberman that want to use this card is operating through the increase of null rod effects being played as a reaction to Paradoxical Outcome. An increase in disenchant effects or bounce effects is definitely warranted, but more may be needed depending on your local meta. I don't see this card elevating Bomberman past Outcome, but it may be enough to break even with Gush. Using Hope to resolve a Dack would allow the Bomberman list to get a great card advantage engine online that is synergistic with its kill engine, a lot gained from a single slot. My guess is that you'd want to rely on permanent based draw engines to resolve (Jace/Dack) because chaining Thirst into another drawn Thirst puts you back at square one in the counter war, and isn't impactful enough to justify running Hope.
This I feel would be the best case scenario.
Finished the podcast while organizing all the recycling for pickup. Goodbye, last renmants of refuse from the holiday season...
Anyway, I was struck by one big glaring hole in your analysis. Namely, that creature decks are perhaps at an all time high (certainly a local maximum) in the Vintage metagame. We have shops, eldrazi, white weenie, mentor, and various flavors of each. While Hope certainly shuts down Mentor pretty handily, it does not stop other creature decks from developing a creature-based game plan. In 2000, I'm sure that stopping your opponent from casting non-creature spells would be a Mindslaver or a Time Walk, but we're living in a world where your opponent can still drop a Thalia or TKS under the Hope.
That's not to say the effect is not still incredibly disruptive. Your opponent cannot back up their creature with countermagic, for example. I still think you're spot on that this card goes right into the toolbox. No doubt. But, if you're going to compare this guy to Time Walk or Mindslaver, it's really a big oversight to not bring up the creature exception. There will absolutely be matches where you have to sideboard Hope out.
I also don't think minislaver will be a thing, but there are a lot of little disruptive applications Hope has that no other card can duplicate. You can attack, sac this and play a threat like Mentor knowing your opponent won't be able to try and deal with it before you untap. That's just huge. You can over-extend with Mentor knowing for sure your opponent won't Supreme Verdict you. You may even tap out for that and don't care.
This is way different than Silence. Silence can help you combo, or pseudo-Time Walk, but this can make you play stuff after the effect knowing for sure they won't be dealt with before you untap. No need to leave Flusterstorm or Drain mana up,
You can also sac this and just pass the turn, knowing you'll win all counter wars and that you'll resolve that Dig uncontested eot.
I think it has a lot of applications. We normally fail to understand novel effects because it's hard to get the nuances without actually playing the card. Hope is not Silence, not at all. Granted, it suffers in a Misstep/StP/Bolt/Null Rod meta, so maybe it's not that splashy (which is a good thing). But dismissing it's effect by saying it's worse than Silence is like saying Dack was just a worse Faithless Looting and that card disadvantage was bad. Remember? A LOT of people dismissed Dack - we actually had long discussions on CA vs card quality and filtering.