@matori said in Dredge going into Summer 2017:
Hi Shawn, sorry for late response, I was afk.
In case we cut Serum Powders we want to find way not to relying on Bazaar entirely. Relying entirely on Bazaar means we will mulligan to oblivion in 1 in 17 games on the play and 1/20 games on the draw. There is some serious math here calculated by @ajfirecracker on old TMD. In case we want to cut Serum Powders we should include something like Cephalid Coliseum, Careful Study and Breakthrough (former two are vulnerable to Missteps) to power out explosive finishes, but again people prefer uncountable Bazaar activation instead of playing spell which can potentially be countered. Vampiric Tutor and similar cards can be great tool in sideboard for Depths/ Lab Maniac/ Hermit Druid variants of deck, and I remember @vaughnbros included it in some of his wining lists. We should test this more seriously as I feel there is huge potential behind it, just players are not willing to go out of comfort zone with traditional lists.
Assuming 4 Serum Powder 4 Bazaar of Baghdad:
Without Library of Alexandria it's 1 in 17 on the play to not get a Bazaar on T1, 1 in 20 on the draw (higher because you have a scry and a draw)
With Library it's 1/20 and 1/24 respectively (assuming you are always willing to keep a 7-card hand with Library, and that counts as a "hit" in the same way as Bazaar)
The 1-in-17 number wasn't mine, but the scry/draw numbers and the Library numbers I calculated using the python program others had built (the underlying probabilities are exact, based on building out the probability tree rather than running simulations)