@evouga said in Anti-Dredge Strategy - from a Dredge Expert:

I again suggest thinking of Workshops as a second view on the same phenomenon. A blue deck with zero non-Moxen artifacts is strictly worse if you add a random Workshop. Once you add the first Workshop and start adding expensive artifacts, you are pursuing a new strategy and now adding three more Workshops is optimal (with diminishing returns as you add more Workshops, with the tipping point well above the maximum allowed 4 copies). The vast majority of Vintage decks want 0 or 4 Workshops. This has nothing to do with p[n].

Agreed, there are good generic arguments that for Magic card X you should run either 0 or the maximum legal number of copies, and only if you have some special reason should you run some number in between (the most common special reason being you actually tested it and the diminishing returns make 1 or 2 or whatever the right number).

With Workshops I would guess the optimal number is somewhere in the 10-12 range, but of course there's no way to get there from first principles - in theory 3 could be the optimal number, but we all know from experience that 3 is silly and you'd prefer to have more of that particular effect. The same applies here - there's no way to get from first principles to the optimal number being 4 or greater.

Moreover, the discussion has all been in the context of a particular deck. Your 0 or 4 division is generated by having different decks with different strategies. I interpret the "0 or 4" claim as applied to a particular deck with a particular set of 71 other cards at its disposal. I agree that generally you would want 0 or 4 because either Leyline meshes well into your strategy or some other card does, and you want the better of the two. However, I don't see any reason at all why Leyline should be an exception to the same principles that frequently push people to play 1, 2, or 3 copies of a card.