"One key to the continued health of Magic is diversity. It is vitally important to ensure that there are multiple competitive decks for the tournament player to choose from."
@nedleeds You are adorable.
The new Welder creature (Goblin Engineerer) seems incredible in both shells, giving you tutoring, redundancy, and...a non-misstepable creature. It doesn't interact with the opponent's artifacts but I assume you would still play Welder. How do you see this printing impacting your lists?
@fsecco It's triggers Vengevine with 1 Rootwalla or Hollow One. The limitation with Survival was that you could only run 4 Bazaars. Even if you included Survivals, you are still only 65% to hit those in an opening 7. Post-board games, you have to worry about Needle, Spyglass, Wasteland, etc.
This card seems quite good to me in that shell. Turn 1 Deathrite, Turn 2 this, discard a Vengevine, cast a Hollow One. You've put 11 power on the board without using Bazaar. Draw Bazaar or Survival? Great...discard this or pitch it to Force. But including two copies bumps you up to a 74% chance of finding Survival, Bazaar, or Trademage. Four puts you over 80%.
I'm not sure what the right number is (and it could be 0), but I'm definitely intrigued based on what I experienced piloting Survival. The floor on the card is very low, especially in a deck that is normally trying to cram as many Blue cards and Creatures into the deck.
@cuikui I am aware. It's literally in bold in the first post... I should have been more specific in that I was trying to dodge the answers from Rod Xerox (was on my phone). This is not a good card against those decks mainly because of the vulnerability to Pyroblast, the Construct being mandatory and Dack Faydenable, etc. To complete my thought, you might do better against UW Lavinia decks like the one Justin was playing on stream.
@vaughnbros It will certainly see play for that same reason you think the card will cost 9 million dollars (and the same reason I'm going to play it). Going to stink though when you can't cast your 4 mana null rod answer through Spheres, or it gets pyroblasted.
@bandswithothers I mean, I did this with Karn, making multiple Karnstructs until you could time walk and swing with generally 15/15+ creatures (had a screenshot of an emrakul chump blocking). Was making a point at the time that you didn’t need to dedicate other cards like tendrils, time vault, etc when you were capable of drawing your deck. It’s definitely viable.
Edit: problem is that I’m not sure Urza attacks from a different angle. I was try to dodge pyroblast, rod, etc. maybe you dodge Lavinia?
RCE is very powerful with a wide range of applications. The "Silence" ability can be used defensively to fizzle spells like Yawgmoth's Will, Dark Petition, Snapcaster, JVP, or just make life miserable for a Storm opponent. It's not bad against PO as well as you can strand Moxen in the opponent's hand after a PO is cast, though not really ideal. It can be used offensively to clear the way for your own combos, like Bomberman or whatever the heck Brian Kelly has up his sleeve (both he and I are both very high on this card). The Tutor ability has several targets across different archetypes including Combo pieces (Ballista, Welder), Hatepieces (Gorilla Shaman), or Value (DRS).
The combination of a relevant creature type, strong base stats, replacement, and an situationally strong ability, makes for a potent package. I plan to try it in several shells and I'm sure it will see play in other formats like Modern and Legacy.
@fsecco Didn't really dedicate much thought to this card in particular, honestly. This particular mechanic (look at the top X cards of your deck and choose certain card types) comes up often so I just made a google sheet to help me and I thought I would share the numbers in this thread to help people with their evaluations. If you don't think it's worth exploring at those numbers, fair enough, but at least you have something concrete to go on.
If I was intrigued by this card, I would probably grouse about the laziness of just plugging it an existing shell without trying to build around it, but these effects just interact so poorly in a format with such a large percentage of Sphere effects. Probably a cool card in Modern though. Triggers Arclight Phoenix by itself and practically flips a Thing in the Ice. Or jam some Pyromancer's Ascensions and Baral's. Fun times.
If you are more interested with a relatively low number of successes, then here is that portion of the graph. I was more interested in hitting 2 or more spells when I made it (similar to the Collected Company question, which puts you at 30 creatures for a 90% chance of hitting 2).
@fsecco It's variable, based on a hypergeometric distribution and a 60 card deck. The x axis is how many successes you have in your deck, whatever you consider to be a success. The y axis is the probability of hitting at that number of successes. Your whiff rate is 1 - the blue line (odds of hitting 1 or more card). Your "max value" is the red line (odds of hitting two or more cards). Not a perfect approximation but