Posts made by ChubbyRain
posted in Dredge read more

@blindtherapy I'm assuming you keep every hand with Bazaar in it, which might not continue to be the case. I agree that exiling non-bazaars improves the odds of finding bazaars but is a 6 card hand from Powder with a Bazaar better than 5 of 7 without another mulligan? 4 of 7? 3 of 7? What about at 5 cards from Powder and having to keep Powders that you might find? I don't have a certain answer for that and I'm not sure a simulation would answer qualitative measures like this.

For the record, I agree with you. My take on seeing initial data from @evouga was that dredge would value the greater starting hand size afforded by Powder. The 3 week London trial left a lot of unresolved questions about the format, including this about Powder. There was only one deck that really sought to omit Powder in a more aggressive shell during Week 2 and finished second in the challenge. This isn't anywhere close to a significant enough sample size to draw a conclusion from.

posted in Dredge read more

@blindtherapy yes, but the math is more complicated as you can assemble some pretty unbeatable 3-4 card hands out of the London mulligan. The quality of your powder hands is not improved as you just draw x cards with no selection (though if this is a subsequent powder, then you do have more control over what you exiled). I don’t know how to weigh this, but in my experience control decks still want to preserve the quantity of cards in their hand while aggro and combo decks can mulligan more often into explosive draws that can win with less cards. Dredge variants have similar philosophical differences in my experience and can exploit Powder and London in different ways. The whole point of cutting narcomoeba and other core components was to demonstrate that the evolving metagame and recent printings make such alterations possible. “Oh no, you are going to be weak against fast combo...” Oh, crap, that’s really going to hurt my win rate against...the literal 0 PO and ritual decks in the top 32 of the challenge.

The point is the Dredge archetype has a ton more depth than its ever had before and even the rules are facilitating more freedom in deck design. I plan on exploring it more in a couple of weeks.

posted in Dredge read more

@blindtherapy Perhaps Aggro is the better term. There was a 2nd place list in the trial period that cut powders to run street wraiths and probes. I think there was still a pitch component though. And fatestitcher just needs a single mana source, right? That’s less than Force + Card. If you gain half a card on average, then depending on the deck, you might not need that half a card if you eliminate the pitch component. That’s my rationale.

posted in Dredge read more

My key points of experimentation post London are

  1. powder vs no powder
  2. mana vs manaless (Pitch vs nonpitch)
  3. combo vs noncombo

I hypothesize that mana less and combo are better able to cut powder than pitch variants as hand size is more important to pitch. The utility of pitch is dependent on the exact metagame post London and the concept of sacred cows outside of bazaar is pretty patently false given recent graveyard centric printings, so it should be an exciting time for Dredge innovators.

posted in Survival read more

@themanadrian Congrats on the finish.

PO is not really a factor in the current MTGO metagame as it put up 0 slots in the top 32 of the Vintage Challenge and has been maybe at 1-2 copy for a while. Some people play it but generally the deck is in the single digits of the metagame. I don't doubt that it's more substantial in Paper but the Paper metagame tends to lag behind MTGO. Just keep in mind that decks are built with different metagames in mind and that card choices are not inherently right or wrong independent of that context.

I do agree with you that Lavinia has a place in the current and future metagame by shutting down free spells such as Force of Vigor.

posted in Tournament Reports read more

Thank you, Jessica.

This has been one of the most brutally hate-filled times in the metagame because the Blue Pitch variant of Dredge has been so prevalent following last week's challenge. It is also a period of time in which "fast combo" is at an all time low because of the impact of new printings, like Narset, Karn, Force of Vigor, Force of Negation, Ouphe, etc. You have very little basis on which to form you rather strong opinions, but that hasn't stopped you before on other topics. In any case, I have learned the futility of engaging with you, so this will be the last time. I will let the results speak for themselves.

Edit: I built this deck earlier this week and MTGO publishes once a week. I was also pilot 2 with 3 4-1s (even if I did have a 5-0, one of the other pilots would likely get published over me given MTGO's reporting system). I know data analysis isn't your strong suit, but come on... At least make a little effort, Mr. Kruger.

Look at your haven't even played on MTGO in two years. You have no knowledge base with the current metagame and literally every take you had was painfully inaccurate in my testing. Hollow One was incredible when your opponent started at 8 life from Crippling Chills. Bloodghast attacking for 2 and having Haste was amazing with Chills. Not to mention casting Hogaak, which Narcomoeba doesn't do. The entire format was warped to deal with Blue pitch cards, so why play them, and if not playing them, why do you need to play Narcomoeba?

Failing to consider new variables isn't the characteristic of an expert. Medical doctors are constantly updating their knowledge bases as new evidence becomes available. It's the characteristic of dogmatic thinking and intellectually lazy thought...

posted in Tournament Reports read more

Lance, I used your shell and some of your theories as the basis for my dredge build. In particular Bloodghast has been really good for me and it was looking at your build that motivated me to actually brew with dredge when it's an archetype I had previously avoided.

The available data I have across a couple of variants and pilots is

Pilot 1: 13-2
Pilot 2: 12-3
Pilot 3: 13-2
Pilot 4: 6-5
Pilot 5: 10-0 (Vintage Challenge win yesterday)

Total: 54-12 (82%)

Naturally, AJ's initial response was "this deck is horribly misbuilt".

It's builds and posts like yours that spur innovation and provide a platform for others to further advance the format and metagame.

Keep up the good work.

posted in Vintage Tournaments read more

@smmenen Kody said on stream that the new update to the interface broke the data collection. It's a shame as it was a very good resource.

posted in Survival read more

There are a lot more BUG decks in Vintage right now, relying on Tarmogoyf to brick the opponents creatures. While you can look to Bazaar Trademage, Andy Probasco's sweet Death's Shadow tech from the TSI, or Deputy of Detention, I don't think Hooting Mandrils has the same functionality. That's kind of where Hogaak fits in to me.

Plus the card is absolutely nuts.

posted in Survival read more

Go for it. Format is all over the place and won't be settled for like another year. Try whatever you want.

posted in Decks read more

I posted about Engineer earlier, but I thought I would bring it up again.

Goblin Engineer feels absolutely insane. You don't get to do the broken things that Welder is capable of but Goblin Welder always had the issue of consistency. Welder needed set it and required Dacks, Thirsts, Bazaars, multiple copies of similar spells. Engineer doesn't require any of that. Play it with singletons. Go get a Crucible when it's good, a Bridge when it's good, or Time Vault when it's good. Go get Sculpting Sphere and Tangle Wire. Or just go get Trinisphere. And you don't have to worry about @nedleeds favorite card, Misstep.

I feel Engineer is actually an upgrade on Welder, which is odd to say as I can definitely appreciate the historical implications @Smmenen alludes to of Welders past dominance. It's just Engineer feels a modernized version of the card that corrects the flaws and opens up new potential. I'm pretty excited to see what it can do in Vintage and Legacy. It's already making waves in Modern with Thopter/Sword + Urza. Give it a try.

posted in Single-Card Discussion read more

@cuikui thanks! Will update it tonight.

posted in Single-Card Discussion read more

Edit: I'm just going to sit out this spoiler season here...

posted in Dredge read more

Yes, I’m saying that the utility of being a b/g card, along with the consistency of hitting and casting hogaark on turn 2 to set up the turn 3 kill, justifies the 4th copy. I thought that followed from my post.

posted in Dredge read more

I haven’t encountered games in which that has come up. Ironically, I’ve lost to lotus Narset + strip mine and not having a dredger (despite Steve’s hyperbole that Narset does nothing) in back to back games and Mirror Fun tm. What matches are the go wide strategy necessary?

Edit: I still kill on turn 3 the vast majority of games.

posted in Dredge read more

I have 2 4-1s in a deck without dread return and with 4 Hogaarks. It’s not pitch. It doesn’t run bridge. A free 8/8 is pretty good without extras honestly. I was testing a minimalist hypothesis by cutting cards like narcmoeba. You don’t need four but the fact that it pitches to Force of Vigor, Ichorid, Unmask, and Contagion/Shoal means the diminishing returns of running 4 are virtually nonexistent and this argument is pretty irrelevant. Play as many as you can fit.

posted in Single-Card Discussion read more

It's more similar to Bob or a Planeswalker that generates a long term advantage if it stays on the battlefield. The card is absurd in Legacy. It's very good in Vintage as well but the hit rate is slightly lower as legacy decks can run more cantrips.

Card evaluation is hard. 🤷

posted in Vintage Strategy read more

Survival and BUG Fish gained a lot from Horizons. We'll see how the Karn decks adapt now 😛

That said, I'm hesitant to play Survival if Dredge with Leylines and Green Forces picks up.

Edit: and the format still feels like a RNG clusterf*** that is still mostly decided by die rolls and opening hands (plus knowledge of the opponent's deck choice). Ouphe does so much more on the play than the draw. An algorithm can process most Dredge openers. Forces have always felt terrible to play with on both sides and the blowout potential of the Green Force is absurd. Watching Rich "counter" a Paradoxical Outcome for two by destroying both targets for a 0 mana 3 for 2 out of Dredge was pretty ridiculous. Narset and Karn negate opening hands by themselves and can end games shortly after. Remember when Chalice was restricted because the DCI wanted players to play with their Moxen? Now, based on the die roll, you frequently have one player with access to Moxen or not in a format that is increasingly defined by Tempo. You have one player with access to card draw or not. You can try not to play the game, but then you tend not to have access to Moxen or card draw and lose to those mechanics which have been pushed by the mistakes of the past.

The decisions in the format and relevant turns in the format are diminishing set by set.

posted in Survival read more

How have ooze and engineer been?