yeah the deck in general is very good. I'm also around 70+% over about 170 matches. i certainly don't think the list is bad, per se, and it's definitely better in most metas than the thalia versions IMO. It's just not quite the 75 i would recommend.
bazaar and survival finding blue cards is good and true, but thats what lets you get away with a blue count of like 17 or 18. for actual blue decks you'd want more like 20 pitchable cards. it's not an exact science, but getting the blue count higher will make your disruption much more reliable, not to mention playing 4 missteps (that card is busted).
i really don't think one priest maindeck will not tilt the dredge matchup in game 1s. if that's the reasoning then that seems suspect. having a plan for the mirror or oath game 1 is better logic, but even then i'd rather have misstep to fight deathrites and cantrips.
@swiftwarkite2 IMO there are not enough blue cards to support force well enough. Sylvan library is a great card, but too greedy to play if you want to have access to force. Maindeck containment priest seems like an unnecessary hedge as well. I would play the 4th misstep for sure. The last slot I have been playing Deep Analysis (in addition to the treasure cruise).
overall, looks pretty good and very close to what has been floating around here. looks like he copied Matt's take on it (chubbyrain)?
@volrathxp enjoyed this article as well!
i know it's probably too much to ask for a regular vintage article series, but it would be really cool to break down not just one specific list for an archetype, but to branch out a little bit and identify core cards versus flex slots and what a few different flex type cards you might play (for metagame reasons or whatever). Cheers!
@john-cox my issue is that he is showing the format from such a jaded and narrow viewpoint. Show off what the format is like, don't just scoop after 3 turns to a revoker and tangle wire! Against oath of druids, let them spill their deck into the GY and see what's in it, either for your own strategic decisions or at least to let the viewers see more of the deck.
Oh man, side note: I watched the hoogland survival video linked and it was painful! He scoops so aggressively early (to a tangle wire one game?), sideboards out ALL survivals way too aggressively, and in general makes in game plays that seem pretty loose. I can give a pass for that last one - the deck is actually pretty tricky to pilot - but he basically just tried to cheese wins and then concedes. If you're playing a vintage league, actually play vintage? Pretty sure he was just trying to play it like a modern hollow one deck haha. I don't think he even activated survival one time!
@volrathxp pretty good breakdown. The reason to go BUG with survival, though, is for the free disruption. Free creatures AND free disruption is crazy good. You no longer have to choose between deploying a clock or deploying disruption.
The rest of the deck is a balancing act of enough creatures for survival, enough blue cards for fow, enough Mana against shops, and the core cards. Leo is the best intersection of those first two, Deathrite for the first and third.
Overall feels much better in the mirror, against PO, against oath. Weaker vs shops.
@wfain okay. oath is a kind of weird one, as it can go a few different ways:
(a) you have answers to oath and can deploy your normal game-plan
(b) you don't have answers to oath, but you can sit back without playing creatures
(c) you don't have answers to oath, but you can be hyper-aggressive enough to race them finding one
scenario (a) is good for you regardless - be aggressive and answer their main plan. don't give them time to find more answers or hardcast something silly.
scenario (b) means you have survival active, or perhaps bazaar plus squee to sculpt a winning board in the face of an oath (minus orchard). Here you would like to have squee, all the vengevines, a couple rootwalla and/or hollow one are okay to hold on to while you wait for a big turn.
scenario (c) you want to have the fastest clock possible, meaning a hollow one (or two) on turn 1 can actually win the game against a mediocre oath draw. Rootwalla or deathrite are a much slower clock AND leave you vulnerable.
overall, i try to SB to have (b) be an option, but still playing towards (c) as more likely. Playing passively and waiting around while the blue deck can sculpt their hand, find oaths, develop their mana, etc., is less likely to be a winning strategy than "making them have it" (and then possibly finding an answer yourself). Keeping the big, fat, threats like hollow one and trimming the dorky slow threats like rootwalla and drs is my plan. Wonder has applications, but is pretty niche - i could see keeping it mostly as a blue creature over some other card. With this general plan I've been about 55% winrate against Oath variants while playing the FoW Survival.
that being said, if you do see a pile of grudges and dacks, yes obv cut some hollow ones. Luckily, if you die to oath game 1, you can see a lot of their deck get spilled into the GY.
IN: 2 claims, 3 rav traps, 1 decay, maybe 1 priest.
OUT: 1 forest (or savannah if no priest), 4 force of wills, 1 flusterstorm
IN: 2 null rod, 1 mindbreak trap, 2 energy flux (mostly bc it's blue, situationally good, but don't think this is a great card.)
OUT: 1 savannah, 1-2 Deathrite, 1 rootwalla, 0-1 survival, 0-1 squee.
IN: 1 decay, 1 mindbreak trap (easy enough to turn on with snapcasters and stuff) 0-2 claims (if you see or suspect leyline. probably bring them in against white for RiP)
OUT: 1-2 Hollow One, 1 Phantasmal Image, 0-1 Savannah (depending on how much you bring in, if you see wasteland)
IN: 1 decay, 2 claims, 2 energy flux, 2 null rod, 1 mindbreak trap
OUT: 4 force of will, 2 misstep, 1 flusterstorm, 1 treasure cruise (you're left with some bad cards still in the deck, but misstep can hit SB hate like cage or relic)
IN: 3 priests, 2 claims, 1 decay, 1 mindbreak trap
OUT: 1 forest, 1-2 deathrite, 1 rootwalla, 1 vengevine, 1 squee, 1 wonder.
these are some guidelines. SB'ing with BUG is generally trickier than SB'ing with the other versions. There is a lot more "shaving" and you need to keep track of your blue count for Force (or side FoW out and not worry). 17 blue cards is the lowest i would go and still think there is a reasonable chance of casting a force of will. I play 18 blue cards main, and can SB up to a few more when having FoW is important.
@gutocmtt that's almost exactly where I've ended up as well, although the SB trygon turned into a nature's claim to have more cheap interaction against shops instead of 3 cmc. Fluster, trap, deep analysis are the most "flex" slots to adjust for an expected meta, and the only difference there is I fit treasure cruise in instead of trap.