@wfain So the cycle spells are only "air" in the graveyard, which is the point that Smmenen was right to emphasize. This is a concern. The loss of Narcomoeba does matter. Ultimately I am more than willing to give up Narcomoebas to start turn 2 with 7 cards in my yard rather than 3. So my cards are on average worse in my graveyard, but I get more of them. The bigger concern is the loss of the blue Forces.
In your example with Preordain, the issue is you end up tying your mana up trying to draw cards instead of doing stuff. In this case the cyclers are free so no mana is being tied up and no tempo is lost.
The list I am considering now is:
4 Bazaar of Baghdad
4 Serum Powder
4 Street Wraith
4 Mishra's Bauble
4 Urza's Bauble
1 Gitaxian Probe
4 Golgari Grave-Troll
4 Stinkweed Imp
3 Golgari Thug
1 Shambling Shell
3 Hogaak, Arisen Necropolis
4 Bridge From Below
4 Prized Amalgam
4 Mental Misstep
4 Cabal Therapy
1 Strip Mine
1 Chalice of the Void
2 Force of Vigor
4 Leyline of the Void
4 Force of Will
4 Force of Negation
2 Force of Vigor
1 Noxious Revival
That is a good point. Compared to your list I dropped 4 Narcomoeba from my reanimation suite.
They are missed for sure, but the extra cycles are nice as well.
The bigger change was dropping the maindeck blue Forces. I miss those a lot.
Here are the comparisons to consider. The downside is the loss of dredging into Narcomoeba. Lets consider the following scenarios: We will label 4 Naromoebas, 6 Forces and 2 Fields as your "questionable" cards. My questionable cards are 8 Baubles and 4 Street Wraiths.
What if we have 0 in our hand? - In this case you deck is clearly better because you can dredge into Narcomoebas and I cannot.
What if we have 1 in our hand? - If you have a Narcomoeba it is dead. If you have a Force then it is great IF you have a Prized Amalgam. Without a Prized Amalgam the Force is dead too. My extra Bauble means I am likely to dredge 5 extra cards off of an Imp so I start turn 2 with 7 cards in my yard instead of 3. That is a huge difference!
What if we have 2 in our hand? - Now you can pitch one blue card to a Force so this extra counter is fantastic. You can feel much safer. I have 2 extra cyclers so I am likely to start turn 2 with 12 cards in my graveyard rather than 3, which means I am likely to be half way through my deck by the begining of my main phase.
To me by far the biggest weakness of the Baubles is the loss of the blue Forces.
I am not sure about Thug vs Shambling Shell.
In Magic there are some games where you blow your opponent out and there are others where you get blown out. The trick is to win the ones in the middle where it could go either way. Cards that primarily effect that middle are most important. Other cards are "win more" or "lose less." Typically if you have Stinkweed Imp or Grave-Troll pre-board you are doing very well and very likely to win. If you have no dredger at all you are in a lot of trouble. Wasteland will just wreck you. One could argue that 0 dredgers is in the middle, but it is close to you getting blown out.
The important middle section is when you get that Thug or Shambling Shell. Basically if Shell/Thug is your only dredger, then getting 4 chances to dredge into something rather than 3 is a pretty big different and impacts the important games where things can go either way.
Unfortunately there is a very serious downside and it shows up in two ways.
First is your opponent goes turn 1 Oath and you have no green spell to pitch to Force of Vigor.
The second is you do have a green card to pitch, but said green card is Golgari Grave-Troll. I would MUCH rather pitch a Shell so I can dredge my Grave-Troll rather than pitch my Grave-Troll so I can dredge a Thug.
There are also games where I end up with 2 Thugs in my hand. Since I run 4 of them this is actually reasonably likely after a Bazaar activation. For this reason I think running 4 Thugs and 0 Shells is the wrong ratio. I think at least 1 Shell is worth it, maybe 2.
So Force of Vigor is obviously a really good card and it allows us to go completely away from mana, but then Leyline of the Void becomes a big problem as there are only 4 solutions in the deck rather than 8-10 as I generally prefer.
The main deck's primary threat is losing to Wasteland. Noxious Revival seemed like a great solution to Wasteland and sort of decent against Leyline in that it pitches to Force of Vigor. I may go back down that route.
Gitaxian Probe seemed highly suspect to me at first.
As I thought and thought about how to find Force of Vigor more reliably I contemplated adding mana back in.
Chain of Vapor could pitch to the counterspells which is decent.
Then there was a game where I probed into Vigor. That seemed good. Then I thought about adding more free cyclers.
In particular I contemplated adding 4 Mishra's Bauble, 4 Urza's Bauble and 4 Street Wraith.
Against a Leyline each cycle speeds you up by 1/3 a turn. By the time you are 12 cards deep you may find 3 cycles which means you are 15 cards deep. If you found an extra cycler then 16 cards deep. It is a lot more likely to find Force of Vigor by then.
Testing around with this a bit I first found that this makes the Force cards way worse since none of the new cards to pitch to anything.
I also found that the deck becomes a lot faster. It is very common to get 2-3 extra dredges by turn 2.
The deck also becomes far more resilient to Wasteland. For instance if I have 2 Baubles on turn 1 and you waste my Bazaar I can still get 3 dredges on turn 3. This is not as good as Noxious Revival at all but still not bad.
Turn 2 Ichorid which chains into a bunch of other stuff is far more likely if you are dredging several times before your second turn starts. Noxious Revival can't do this.
Note that the Baubles give valuable information about your opponent's current and future hand and make it
more likely to hit with your first Cabal Therapy.
Finally post board when 17/60 cards cycle for free it all of sudden becomes a lot more likely to find that Force of Vigor against Leyline of the Void
Lets say you are on the play post board and your opponent drops Leyline.
You have 2 cycles in your opening hand so you cycle twice.
Then you play and activate Bazaar. This draws you a 3rd cycler so you cycle a 3rd time.
You are now a full turn ahead of where you would be without the cycles. On average you do not quite get 2 non Bazaar cycles in your opening hand, but you average more than 1.
My testing was done assuming opponents were boarding out their countermagic. This may not be optimal. I have been of the opinion that non Mental Misstep countermagic is sub optimal post board. The role of the Leyline is not turn the other deck into a prison deck, but instead to act as a road block to let the other deck combo out first. Now that there are only 4 Leyline removal spells in the whole deck, the whole prison strategy becomes a lot better.
You cannot cut dredgers below 12 because you really want to dredge and not draw pre-board.
I pulled out Chalice of the Void because it seemed bad with 8 Baubles, but I can just drop the Baubles first. When I don't have a dredger I might draw into a Bauble but a dead Bauble is not the end of the world because Bazaar.
Probably Chalice belongs.
The Unmasks in the board were in case of Jailer or a similar creature. I was thinking about using them on the play only, but I did not use them much at all.
I would consider all of the other usual suspects including Noxious Revival, Misdirection, Hollow One, Contagion, Spinning Darkness, Ravenous Trap and Dakmoor Salvage. Losing to Wasteland when I boarded out the Baubles was a problem so I am currently leaning towards Noxious Revival.
If your opponent does not have Leyline then you can bring in the Forces and remove some of cycle cards so you can counter hate spells.
All of this information I am about to provide is somewhat dated and may not apply to the current meta, but I played a lot of Uba Stax back in the day. Here are some comments:
The real strength of Uba Stax is not Welder. It is Workshop. There are two kinds of hands that are keepable. There are Workshop hands and there are Welder + Bazaar hands. Everything else is pretty bad. The problem with Welder + Bazaar hands was already addressed by Soly. You are leaning hard on a 1cc 1 toughness creature that doesn't do anything the turn it comes into play. In many metas this is a huge no-no.
Uba Stax should not be thought of as being built around Welder. Welder is a nice like to have card. It is something that costs you 1 mana and your opponent must answer it. It is not a card to build your whole strategy around.
The best card that your list is missing IMHO is Serum Powder.
Serum Powder allows you to aggressively mulligan to a hand with Mishra's Workshop or Sol Ring. You do not do this quite as aggressively as Dredge mulligans for Bazaar, but you should mulligan a lot.
General advantages of Serum Powder in Uba Stax are:
- It is a free one sided draw7 that can be played on turn 0. (AKA it is just a good card in general)
- Tapping for 1 mana is actually really good. Opening up with turn 1 Mox, Shop, Powder, Resistor is usually a strong play as you can play pretty much any card in your deck through Resistor the following turn.
- The 3cc mana cost is totally doable.
- The fact that it is a near dead draw in the mid/late game is heavily mitigated by Bazaar. Just pitch it to Bazaar.
- It Welds out for better artifacts.
- It Sacks to Smokestack.
- It taps to Tangle Wire (if you play it)
- Karn turns it into a 3/3 beatstick.
A big disadvantage is that it is shut off by Null Rod.
Null Rod is a really good card. We had a long debate once about the pros/cons of running Null Rod. I remember I was initially against it, but warmed to it as the debate went on. Now that Chalice of the Void is restricted that makes Null Rod better in a few ways. Chalice@0 already shut off Moxen, so Rod was weaker. Chalice@2 shut off Rod.
What I did not like about Rod was that it would shut off these artifacts that my opponent would either be sacking to smokestack or tapping to Tangle Wire anyway. Also Null Rod shut off a bunch of my own artifacts (including additional Null Rods) so I thought it was hurting me nearly as much as it hurt my opponent.
As I mentioned earlier the key to Uba Stax is the Shop and not Welder. For that reason I am against Sundering Titan. At 8cc it is significantly harder to cast than other options. I used Karn, Silver Golem back in the day. I did not use Null Rod at the time, but Karn was a fast clock when I needed it, ate Moxen and was much easier to hardcast at 5cc.
I remember concluding that Mana Vault was not that great and that was without Null Rod in the deck.
Consider cutting Null Rod. This might be a TERRIBLE idea now that you can only run 1 Chalice of the Void, but at least explore it. I want to be clear that I am not suggesting you actually do it. Only consider it.
Also consider adding Serum Powder. This only works if you mulligan aggressively to Workshop.
I would recommend dropping Sundering Titan.
Other cards to consider:
Expedition Map: Finds Bazaar, Workshop, Strip Mine, Academy or Barbarian Ring. Note that if you run Serum Powders the 2cc activate cost becomes much easier to cast.
Null Brooch: This combos well with Ensnaring Bridge, Uba Mask and Bazaar. Each tends to empty your hand anyway.