For 1 mana you get 3 damage from bolt anywhere you want it.
For 2 mana you get an average of like 4 damage that you can only dome an opponent with.
Just not worth the extra mana.
Grim monolith and mana vault are both friends with transmute, as is painter combo, if you really want to play it.
I mean, all of these still play well with Tinker first and foremost, which leads you down the same evaluation path.
Here is where my head is. If you could construct a reason to play mono blue transmute gets a bit of value but for the life of me I cannot think of a list that can justify that. Let's say you wanted to do some sort of Turbo Timevault thing. Your still going to run off color moxen because you need targets but I GUESS you could start here:
1 Sol ring
1 Mana crypt
1 Mana vault
1 Black Lotus
4 Force of will
4 Mental Misstep
4 Voltaic Key
4 Voltaic Servant
1 time vault
1 Mystical Tutor
1 Merchant scroll
X Transmute Artifact
Now just as a thought experiment, answer these questions
It just seems like there is simply too much competition for that slot. Tinker is most of the time a card that you win the game off of because your game plan around it is to set up protection the turn you go off. Every Transmute you also run in your deck is one less counterspell potentially to protect the wincon. In this regard the 3 mana versus 2 mana (if you are so lucky) is almost irrelevant since it is not something you are rushing out until your protection is in place.
What is the circumstance you are in where you cannot tutor for tinker but can play Transmute? The only one I can actually think of that is realistic to think could happen is Meddling Mage, but mage can just as easily name Transmute if they wanted to. Things that prevent you from going into your deck like Aven Mindcensor affect all these cards equally.
If you have a tutor in hand and your options are tinker or transmute, in what situation would you pick transmute in the course of a normal magic game?
I'll put this another way. I would sooner run my first copy of personal tutor than my first of transmute in almost every situation I can come up with, and that card sees no play.
@rat3de Well, let's play that out. What's the best line here?
T1 - Land, Welder
T2 - Mox, Mox, Transmute away one Mox to bin Inkwell/Sphinx, Weld out?
That's not too shabby but it's a pretty long line of things to have to occur.
If you have this set up then you also have T1-T2 Land Mox Mox Tinker without needing the welder and you can get blightsteel if don't want inky.
You can also have
T1 - Underground, Mox, Demonic for Tinker
T2 - Mox or land, Tinker
T1 - Land, EOT Mystical tutor or Vampiric tutor for Tinker
T2 - Mox, mox or land, Tinker
Once again, I assume your not playing 4 copies of transmute and most likely running 1, so this argument is not about having more cards to draw into to get there and not about liklihood of drawing it in the opener. There are just better cards that support better lines of play in this case. It does look like a better fit with time vault where the mana cost differential is not substantial, but even there I cannot truly justify what we are trying to make happen.
Well of course Tinker and Demonic Tutor are better than Transmute, not sure why this needed to be pointed out. The point would be to supplement those with Transmute.
I played a Two card monte a while back that used Transmute to the get Grindstone, Key, Time Vault and Painter's Servant for cheap. Wasn't anything great, but the Transmute did the job to get the combo pieces reliably.
I think you are missing my point. The competition to be in your 60/75 is already fierce. Once you get all the "required cards" out of the way, of which there is a lot for most tinker style decks, you really only have a few flexible slots to fit in cards. Given the option of having a second tinker that is not quite as good as tinker, versus more counter magic or whatever, and then realizing that you already have other cards in the list that can function as a stand in to tinker like the above listed cards, most people realize it is no longer worth it.
Compound that with the fact that most artifacts in your deck are 0-1 mana cards and the thing you want to search for range from like 2-12 and it is a much more costly proposition. I think most of the time people just rightfully look at the card and say "this is too costly to use and I do not really need it"
@protoaddct Transmute is also a staple in Old School.
Yea, I just didn't think that was the overwhelming reason the card is demanding the price tag it is right now. I don't think you can even read the number of players that play old school off a stat sheet while standing under the shadow that commander casts over it.
I think the issue with the card is and always has been there are other better options.
Tinker is generally considered better for above stated reasons. But it is restricted, so let's say you want 2? It feels as if most people would sooner play Tezz1, Mystical tutor for Tinker, Demonic tutor for tinker, etc since those cards not only provide more versatility than just being tinker number 2, but are also way easier on your mana base as opposed to the UU needed for Transmute (plus the difference you may have to pay.)
The fact is that Tinker is a shockingly powerful card that ends the game when it's played a fair portion of the time, so you really do not want more than 1. It is also very vulnerable to a number of answers and therefore can be a liability against some decks even at 1.
The good news is that the 150-200 dollar price tag it is holding right now is stemming from Commander where Tinker is banned and Transmute will likely remain an amazing card and keep the price and usage elevated.
@horologium Is your sideboard plan a full sandbag into a list that does not care about the yard at all. or just splashy stuff.
I ask because part of me wonders if there is not validity to going even further in that direction.
4x Hollow one
4x Creeping Chill
4x Soul Spike
4x Chancellor of the dross
4x Chancellor of the Forge
So on and so forth. The list does have the potential to be faster and more disruptive than even regular dredge compositions since it can do copious amounts of damage on turn one, potentially putting players in the danger zone if they start trying to play fetches, misssteps, etc.
It works less than favoriable with Simian Spirit guide on the top. I "think" you can build a mono red beltcher with this as an engine and toss in 4 street wraiths toncycle the top, maybe faithless looting as well. Still eats it to countermagic or a sphere.