My suspicion is, at least in Vintage, that this rule would make mulliganing your average 7 correct. If you have 1-2 more lands than you might want or whatever that you’d probably keep now, this new rule encourages you to ship it instead. I don’t think that’s good.
I don't think that's necessarily true. The impact might be muted somewhat due to the overall higher power level of the average card in Vintage compared to other formats, but I still think going down a card is a big enough drawback that it'll continue to be correct to keep marginal hands like the one you describe.
@Khahan @revengeanceful My point is that you're betting your whole game on the fact that he doesn't have that 2nd Misstep in hand. If he does, the game is over for you. Maybe you are willing to take that risk, but I wouldn't. If you defend Top (which is what I'd probably do), your chances to find more permission on the next 1-2 turns are big, which will help you defend your Ancestral better in the future.
If he has 2 missteps and responds to your Fluster countering your Top, then that's 2 less missteps to screw with your Ancestral. This hand is built on Top or Ancestral resolving. If you get both countered (specially on a 1-to-1 basis, which mean by Misstep or Mindbreak), game is over. There's also a chance letting Top get countered and leaving Flusterstorm up so you don't lose to a big turn 1 from them is also a good play. I'd just not bet my whole game on him not having a counter for Ancestral.
That makes some sense, thanks for the clarification. There certainly seems to be more nuance to this scenario than I initially thought.
I like the Ancestral plan but think it's best to wait and do it during the opponent's upkeep, to dodge Mindbreak Trap, since you've already used your land drop and are unlikely to draw into any immediate action (Mox + second Top, etc).
The chance of drawing your own Misstep makes Ancestral right now way better.
I feel like playing Ancestral there is just praying to get blown out though. A second Misstep means you just lost the game. I'd either let Misstep resolve or Fluster, probably Fluster. Depends if you know what you're playing against. Either way you're more likely to resolve Ancestral next turn.
This is an interesting opinion. I'm curious why you think waiting until next turn gives you a greater chance to resolve Ancestral compared to now. Say your opponent does have a second Misstep - what are you hoping to accomplish between now and your next turn that would make your Ancestral more likely to resolve? I feel like giving your opponent a turn to do whatever (cast Preordain or god forbid an Ancestral of their own, or just play a fetch and pass the turn back) would make it far less likely for your Ancestral to resolve on your second turn.
It might be interesting to use the emergence of the Survival deck as a case study. Why did this brew emerge when it did? Why was it initially appealing? What angle does it attack the metagame from that has enabled it to remain a viable deck? And so on. If you can understand the answers to these questions in that context, it may help inform your potential future brews.