I am a writer for Black Magic Gaming, color commentator for the Mana Drain Vintage League, and current Vintage MTGO streamer at https://www.twitch.tv/vaughnbros
A “hate” card by definition is only supposed to be good against a subset of decks, and bad against the others. The problem is that Vintage doesn’t contain the full spectrum of decks available to it. Every deck has become some Control + Combo hybrid, or Control + Aggro hybrid. Pure combo decks get destroyed by the restricted list. Pure Aggro is not fast enough. Pure control doesn’t finish decks off fast enough either. These weird hybrid decks cause all sorts of fundamental issues of almost every deck bwing affected by what should be narrow “hate” cards.
Willingness to errata cards makes Hearthstone a much more enjoyable game to play. They probably though they were doing good pushing the power level of Planeswalkers there and ended up having to ban/restrict a bunch of them. But if they could make slight adjustments to the text and mana cost these cards would be fine.
My point was more that thw 3x FKZ is probably better split into other DR finishers as well as the 2x Titan. There are a plethora of other good options, e.g. Kologhan, Laboratory Maniac, Muldrotha, Griselbrand, Hatebound Flayer. This allows the deck to overcome scenarios where you can’t win with Bridge into a bunch of zombies.
It’s hard to really know what the results mean without knowing your whole process and decision trees. The results are so far off what I think anyone would expect. Just to name a few...
Mox Diamonds in a deck with less than 10 lands.
Multiple copies of FKZ.
Bridge from Below when it only works with Narcomoeba.
Simulation studies are highly reliant on the input parameters that are being varied. Without knowing those input parameters, we can’t really determine the validity of the results. I think that something in your simulation may be off. Turn 3 kills in Dredge are not particularly that difficult once you add Fatestitchers, and turning the deck into a complete glass cannon doesn’t seem like it’s necessary to reach that point.
The core of that platform looks like it was built in the 1990s, and its incompatible with Android/iOS. It absolutely needed to be replaced. I'm disappointed that their solution for replacing it is invalidating all of the cards that people have purchased in the past. Its really bad business, and after I reluctantly sell out of MTGO at some point in these next couple months, it might be a while before I commit to any WotC / Hasbro products again. With the amount of money that we all have invested into their game, they should have already set up a rebate system at this point to transfer players and they should be giving us a clearer timeline in terms of when certain formats will be available. This, like many other things with this game, seems mismanaged from the executive level.